2009-03-06

Andy Xie's Latest

A Decade to Lose The most relevant part on developing economies:
The problem with the model today is that it is crowded. Developing economies are already 30 percent of the global economy at current price and nearly half on a purchasing power basis. The export model cannot thrive for shortage of customers. Developing countries have to trade more with each other and develop domestic demand. But this would require painful reforms to their political economies. The key is property rights and income distribution. The two must go hand in hand. Lack of domestic demand tends to result from income concentration, which is due to uneven playing field in opportunities. Many developing countries, like South American and Southeast Asian countries, have stagnated in the past decade due to their inability to reform their political economies.

全球亦将失去十年?
今天,这一模式遇到的挑战是采用它的国家太多了。以当前的价格计算,发展中国家占据了全球经济的30%;以购买力平价计算,占据了全球经济的近半壁江山。在缺乏消费者的情况下,这一模式难以延续既往的畅行无阻。发展中国家必须更多地开展彼此间的贸易往来,挖掘国内需求。这要求它们不得不对本国的政治经济体系实施痛苦的改革,改革的核心在于产权制度和收入分配制度,二者必须相辅相成。过去十年来,南美洲和东南亚等发展中国家的经济停滞不前,根源就在于它们无力改变自身的政治经济模式。

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