2009-10-21

Let's get contrarian

Robert Prechter is probably the most famous dollar bull. Now let's add Ambrose Evans-Pritchard to the list. He has his own arguments in: Dollar hegemony for another century
Let me stick my neck out.

The dollar will still be the world’s dominant reserve currency in 2030, sharing a degree of leadership in uneasy condominium with the Chinese yuan. It will then regain much of its hegemonic status as the 21st century unfolds. It may indeed end the century even stronger than it was at the start.

The aging crisis in Asia — and indeed the outright demographic implosion in Japan and China, not to mention China’s water crisis — will soon be obvious to everybody. Talk of Oriental supremacy will start to sound overblown at first, and then preposterous.
He cites European and Asian demographics, and the currently weak U.S. dollar. He does add the caveat that Obama and the Dems could totally destroy a strong economic recovery that may be building in the United States with their reckless spending.

One thing is that all the notes he hits are facts. When the dollar recovers, suddenly it will be obvious that Europe and Japan are in worse shape, that China's yuan is not ready to take on the U.S. dollar, etc.

For the opposite view, see Niall Ferguson's interviews.

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