2010-06-08

Socionomics Alert—Breakups in Europe to begin?

This is related to social mood, not the current debt crisis. The trend has been building for years and now it may come to fruition. I tend to believe that two things need to happen for an "extreme" political/financial event to occur. One, the social mood must be right, but two, the trend or movement must be in place. For instance, whether right or left-wing, whichever extreme has the political momentum and the candidates and issues ready, can win victory. In Belgium, the forces for political devolution were already strong and social mood is pushing them over the top:
Despite its status as the home of the European Union, Belgium itself has long struggled with divisions between its 6 million Dutch-speakers and 4.5 million Francophones but until recently talk of a breakup has been limited to extremists.

Now, Bart De Wever of the centrist New Flemish Alliance is pressing for exactly that. What once seemed a preposterous fantasy of the political fringes has, in the mouth of a man seen as a possible prime minister, suddenly takes on an air of plausibility.
"We are in each other's face," De Wever told 800 party faithful packed into a sweaty theater here ahead of Sunday's elections. "And together we are going downhill fast.
Flanders and Wallonia must be masters of their own fate."

The consequences of a precedent-setting split would be felt as far away as Spain: wealthy Catalonia has engaged in a long-standing campaign for independence and Basque separatists still set off bombs in their quest for autonomy.

Italy's Northern League, which is in coalition with Silvio Berlusconi's center-right party, has also advocated a split between the rich north and the impoverished south.
These other examples are what I'm talking about. Maybe the Basques are far enough along and given Spain's financial situation, maybe it's a financially positive decision for the country if that region has run up a bunch of debt (have your independence and take your debt with you). But in Italy, I doubt the Northern League is far enough along at the moment to have a chance at success. That could change though, depending on how deep the social mood declines and how they build up their movement.

Looking beyond politics, however, what does a breakup of Belgium do to countries thinking about leaving the euro? I think it will provide a positive example that breaking up can be very easy and mutually agreeable, as it was for the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

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