2010-07-01

Australian Labor government in trouble

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd resigned over the mining tax and was replaced by Julia Gillard. The move has provided a bounce for the Labor party:
Poll shows Australia Labor Party likely to win next election

In Lessons Learned from Australia’s ‘Bloodless Coup’, the topic gets more in depth coverage:
The nation has been in shock since the announcement of Rudd’s demise on June 24, with the media finger pointing, accusing, and fear-mongering about the unions taking over.

Political analysts, however, are clear—Rudd slipped so badly in the polls that the Labor Party was fighting for its survival.

“We know that Labor was going to lose the election unequivocally in both the reported opinion polls and in their own internal party polls, which showed that they were headed, not just for defeat, but for a resounding defeat,” said Dr. Haydon Manning, Associate professor in the School of Political studies at Flinders University in South Australia.

“Their only alternative was to go to the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard,” Manning said.
This isn't sounding as positive as some of the headlines suggest. Let's take a look at how Labor is doing at the state level, in New South Wales:
NSW Labor plunges to record low
The latest Newspoll shows primary support for New South Wales Labor is at the lowest level for any state government in the survey's history.

Primary support for Labor is sitting at 25 per cent, down six percentage points since the last Newspoll conducted in April.
There's a great quotes to go along with this:
Newspoll's Martin O'Shannessy agrees but says it will take a miracle for Labor to win.

"It would be Lazarus with a triple bypass, with a voodoo doctor and five candles and two chickens," he said.
Interestingly, the party was hit by scandals. However, are these enough to sink a whole party during normal times?
Mr Campbell quit Cabinet after footage was broadcast showing him leaving a gay sex club.

Mr Macdonald resigned after incorrectly billing taxpayers for travel expenses.
Are these incidents, along with the mining tax proposed by Rudd, enough to sink a government? Or is the declining social mood driving voter dissatisfaction with all politicians, with the various scandals providing flash points and convenient justification to toss unpopular leaders from office?

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