Pundits lag socionomic prediction

The political pundits are starting to come around to the idea of an epic election in the U.S. this November.

Dick Morris writes, Obliterating a generation.

and

Peggy Noonan last week wrote, The Enraged vs. the Exhausted, with the tagline:

If you thought the 1994 election was historic, just wait till this year.

The declining social mood predicted a big change at the ballot box. Even if the pundits don't want to look at socionomics, the evidence pouring in from around the globe, from minority governments in the UK and Australia, to fringe political parties and start-ups winning seats in Sweden and Japan, also heralded a big change.

Europe is now running an almost complete parallel with the U.S. on the issue of immigration. Whereas Arizona is trying to fight human migration across the Mexican border, France is trying to remove gypsies. Whereas the U.S. federal government has filed suit against Arizona to stop the state from enforcing an immigration law modeled on federal law, the EU Commission may take legal action against France.

As for the U.S., I still think the pundits are underestimating the mood of the country. At this point, however, so close to the election, there's enough information for the experts to make informed predictions. There's no socionomic surprise coming because the social mood is baked into the polls. There may be, however, an economic data surprise coming in the form of advance third quarter GDP. Consumer Metrics shows very negative trends in previous months and while they also show that the economy may have bottomed, the government data lags their real-time data. Consumer Metrics' data translates into steep declines in GDP and while it might not match it one-for-one, there's a good chance that the government also reports a negative figure.

Late news generally doesn't swing an election, but in this case, the public is concerned about the economy. A negative print days before the election could mean the difference in races that are toss-ups.