2012-02-05

Socionomics Watch—Hong Kong residents call Mainland Chinese "locusts"; Chinese call HKers "running dogs"

A war of words and actions has erupted between Hong Kong and Mainland China. Ostensibly a part of China, Hong Kongers increasingly see themselves as separate from the mainland, to the point where they are confronting Chinese tourists on the streets. The vector for this conflict is the tidal wave of pregnant mainland mothers who go to Hong Kong for medical care and citizenship. As a small city bordering Mainland China, the population imbalance is acute and lead to pregnant Hong Kong women unable to find a hospital bed.

Hospitals may ban mainland mothers
Speaking in a radio interview, Dr Cheung Wai-lun, the authority's director of hospital groups, said: "We are evaluating next year's quota for non-local pregnant women. There is a chance we might further lower it or we may even stop admitting them."

A quota of 3,400 births has been set for non-local women in public hospitals this year, down from 10,000 last year, and Cheung said it could be lowered even further.

He said the primary aim of public hospitals was to meet local needs.
There could be a legal solution to this problem though, one that could defuse the conflict:
Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai, a member of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said the NPC had stated in 1999 that babies born to visiting mainland parents in Hong Kong should not be given the right of abode.

But in 2001, the Court of Final Appeal ruled that the right of abode should be given to Chong Fung-yuen, who was born while his parents were in the city on two-way permits.

Fan said, given that the city's government had still not sought a reinterpretation from Beijing after the court's ruling, it now had to consider how to cope with the influx of mainland women giving birth here.
As a testament to negative social mood, this simmering issue has quickly erupted into a big "cross-border" conflict.
Translation of the ad, from ChinaSmack:
Do you want Hong Kong to spend $1,000,000 HKD every 18 minutes raising “double negative” children? ["double negative" refers to when neither parent is from Hong Kong.]

Hong Kong people have had enough!

Because we understand that you are victimized by poisonous milk powder, we’ve tolerated you coming to panic buy milk powder;
Because we understand that you have no freedom, we’ve welcome you to “travel freely” to Hong Kong;
Because we understand that your education is backwards, we’ve shared our educational resources with you;
Because we understand that you don’t read complete [traditional] Chinese characters, we’ve used crippled [simplified] Chinese characters below:
“When coming to Hong Kong, please respect local culture, [because] if it weren’t for Hong Kong, you would all be doomed.”
Strongly demand that the government revise the Article 24 of Basic Law!
Stop mainland “double negative” pregnant women from limitless invasion of Hong Kong!

Hong Kong newspaper ad rails against Chinese 'invasion'
The advertisement in the Apple Daily asks if Hong Kongers approve of spending HK$1,000,000 (US$128,925) every 18 minutes to take care of children borne by mainland parents and declares that "Hong Kong people have had enough!"

Picturing a giant locust perched atop a mountain overlooking Hong Kong, the ad invokes the locally-coined locust label used to describe mainlanders, reflecting a concern among some residents in Hong Kong that mainland Chinese are "taking over" the city.
This paragraph is extremely important for understanding social mood and the nature of conflict. How often does one hear that Europeans or Americans are racist for opposing high levels of immigration, because those immigrants come from different cultures or racial groups? Yet, here are Hong Kong people reacting in a manner that would be a hate crime in Europe and at least described as one in the United States. However, linguistically and genetically, there's no (or very little) difference between most Hong Kong people and those coming from Mainland China. Even culturally, these are very similar populations, but they are still objecting to the mass influx of population. It makes average citizens uneasy:
The ad comes after a series of incidents in recent weeks that point to a growing resentment among locals, with some critics suggesting this is due to a deeper unease and anxiety over Beijing's degree of influence in local affairs and Hong Kong's autonomy within the "one country, two systems" that took effect after the city's handover to Beijing in 1997.

"The greatest fear Hong Kong people have is Hong Kong becoming just one more city in China," Chinese University of Hong Kong anthropologist Gordon Mathews told Time magazine last week.
Fear, anxiety. These are emotions that dominate during negative social mood. The article goes on to detail how some citizens are taking direct action:
In December, a row between locals and mainland visitors on a city train was caught on video and widely circulated online. The prolonged yelling match, sparked when an local man became incensed by a woman who had disobeyed the no-eating rules and ended up spilling food on seats, led passengers to press the emergency button.

Another incident occurred last month outside a Dolce & Gabbana store in Hong Kong when shop staff were accused of discriminating against locals by preventing them from taking pictures, while mainland tourists and other foreigners were reportedly allowed to do so.

Welcome begins to wear thin
At the same time, grassroots resentment has boiled over in Hong Kong toward this influx of mainland Chinese visitors on a number of fronts, including healthcare and housing, presenting a twilight challenge for Tsang and his government’s legacy of symbiotic integration with China.

Insults are being hurled across the border, with some Hong Kongers decrying the mainland Chinese as “locusts”, while one Chinese professor called Hong Kong people “running dogs” of the British.

Some say Hong Kong’s overly China-focused policies have corroded the city’s uniqueness, international character and values, and those policies might now need revising.

Mainland Chinese counter that Hong Kong for too long looked down on its mainland cousins and should not enjoy favoured status from mainland leaders.
It's not as though these feelings are entirely new. There were street protests in 2003:
“It’s all an outcome of a set of inclinations toward China policies laid down by the government 15 years ago,” said Chip Tsao, a well-known columnist and writer in Hong Kong, referring to the first post-handover administration of the unpopular, Beijing-backed leader, Tung Cheehwa, whose policies sparked a mass, half-million strong anti-government demonstration in 2003.
And how was the Hang Seng Index trading at the time?

Only at the lows for the decade, which fits the socionomic theory that these types of protests would occur in the vicinity of stock market declines, the declines themselves a reflection of negative social mood. The people in both Hong Kong and China are in the midst of declining social mood and this conflict is the result. However, it could have deeper legs because of the strong public reactions. For example, some Hong Kong netizens have also created a music video called "Locust World":



There is also a more popular video that shows Mainland Chinese doing things Hong Kong people hate:



Hong Kongers are also singing the "Locust World" song in the faces of Chinese visitors: Hong Kongers Sing “Locust World” Harassing Mainland Tourists
Right now in Hong Kong, people are singing “Locust World” when encountering mainlanders on the street, especially against those tourists who are buying luxury bags and cosmetics, and has already become harassment.

And how is China reacting? First lets look at a chart of the Chinese stock market, which shows a clear decline since 2009, indicating declining social mood:


First up is Washington Post coverage: China denounces ‘Hong Konger’ trend
The survey, conducted last month by the University of Hong Kong, found that the number of respondents who view themselves as Hong Kongers is more than double the number who see themselves as Chinese and that bonds of shared identity with the mainland have grown weaker since Britain relinquished control in 1997.

Infuriated by the results, Chinese officials have orchestrated a campaign of denunciation — the latest blast in a barrage of verbal and written broadsides against alleged disloyalty in Hong Kong.
If you think this is a small issue, think again. Along with the behavior of citizens in Hong Kong, taking action against Mainland visitors, there are very serious implications due to the schedule for democratic elections in 2017.:
The China Daily, a state-run mainland newspaper, ridiculed the survey as “preposterous” and “intent on messing up Hong Kong.” Other party-controlled media in Hong Kong suggested that Chung was being manipulated by foreign interests, including British spies, alleging contacts with David Ford, a former colonial official in Hong Kong with supposed ties to British intelligence.

“I do not know David Ford, and I have never met him,” Chung said.

China’s sharp reaction has sparked wary speculation here about its motives. One theory is that officials merely want to display tough nationalist credentials ahead of a leadership transition in Beijing this year. Others note the role of local politics: Hong Kong will get a new chief executive this year — chosen by a 1,200-member committee — and will then start preparations for a real election, with universal suffrage, scheduled for 2017.

Beijing, analysts say, wants to ensure that the expansion of democracy in Hong Kong doesn’t empower “hostile forces” or encourage discussion of what it views as taboo issues, one of the most sensitive of which is identity.
Conflict is scheduled to occur by 2017. It may not be violent, but if social mood remains negative or becomes worse, separatist sentiment will grow and Hong Kong will become a thorn in Beijing's side. The election could result in a "rejection" of Beijing and a loss of face for the thin-skinned Communist party. On the other hand, if social mood rises in China or Hong Kong (one side becoming positive would probably be enough to defuse the tensions), Hong Kong and China will put aside differences and work together.

The last bit from the Washington Post story:
Independent media have rallied to Chung’s defense and voiced alarm at China’s reaction. Instead of attacking Chung, the Ming Pao newspaper said, Beijing officials should ask why Hong Kong’s people “are growing cool towards China.”
The answer is social mood.

Finally, to see how Chinese netizens are reacting, click through to Anti-Mainlander Hong Kong Ad Parodied, Becomes Internet Meme.There are many parody ads. Some use parody to criticize, such as the one that substitutes Hong Kong for the U.S. and calls for a Chinese exclusion act. Others almost seem sympathetic because they attack migrants moving into Chinese cities, where locals have similar adverse reactions. Also included are many translated comments from Chinese websites, showing a range of opinion on the issue.

For investors, what's the takeaway? Be on the alert for policies/actions that damage the economy. Hong Kong will suffer if there are policy mistakes, or if the anti-Mainland sentiment causes tourism to slow.

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