2012-02-14

Socionomics Watch—National suicide in Japan

A nation on suicide watch
Japan's plight is such that Yoshibumi Wayamiya, editor-in-chief of Asahi Shimbun, Japan's second-largest newspaper (selling 11 million copies a day), warned that "the black scenario of `Japan's suicide' is sounding increasingly plausible".
Why the talk of suicide now? Japan is much closer to the edge of financial catastrophe as pointed out by hedge fund managers such as Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass and David Einhorn. That said, many investors thought they were close to the edge a decade ago and the Japanese have shrugged off those pessimists for a decade.

The change in tone is a result of social mood. Social mood in Japan has declined and the economy is sliding with it. The country's trade deficit has turned negative and the aging population is starting to spend its savings. The combination means Japan will need to seek foreign investors for its debt and that will in turn lift interest rates—but whereas European nations enter crisis mode around 7-8% interest, Japan is in trouble at 4%. A major crisis is coming, but social mood is only the catalyst. Decades of failed economic policies and a mountain of debt (Japanese debt is to Greek debt as Mount Fuji is to Mount Olympus) are the fundamental factors at play.

How bad is the situation in Japan? Consider this story: Third of young Japanese men not interested in sex
According to the survey of 671 men and 869 women, issued by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 35.1 per cent of men aged 16 to 19 said they are not interested in or averse to sex, more than double the 17.5 per cent of men in the previous study in 2008.
Equally worrying, he said, is the increase in the number of married couples who are officially recognised as "sexless," meaning they have not had sex for more than one month.
The figure has risen to 40.8 percent of all married couples, up from 36.5 percent two years ago and 31.9 percent in 2004.

Japan Population Decline: Third Of Nation's Youth Have 'No Interest' In Sex
If that's not bad enough, The Wall Street Journal reports that a whopping 59% of female respondents aged 16 to 19 said they were uninterested in or averse to sex, a near 12% increase since 2008.
On the bright side, these numbers can change very quickly, but this is one depressed country. The economy will follow.

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