Real estate investment collapses in China

The National Bureau of Statistics reported an 18.7% increase in real estate investment for the first four month of the year, down from a 23.5% percent growth rate in the first three months. China reports this data as a running year-on-year annual growth figure, but it's possible to calculate the April data: real estate investment increased only 8.4% in April, year-over-year. Extrapolating the data, things turn better later in the year thanks to favorable comparisons, but the growth rate will decelerate for the next two months. Importantly, this decline in investment is not a condition of lower prices: the total area of land sales has declined as have the number of projects.

The data comes as the PBOC has ended its tightening cycle and loosened reserve requirements by 0.5% to 20%. If, as a CSJ (China Securities Journal) editorial calls for, the PBOC continues cutting reserve requirements and then also interest rates, the outlook for the real estate market would improve greatly.

房产投资增速连降 明年需求或反弹
China May Cut Reserve Ratio Further To Boost Economy - Paper

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