2012-10-08

Liu Jun Luo predicts 40% devaluation of renminbi in 2013

Liu Junluo's prediction of a crash in the gold market didn't come to pass, but he's sticking to that call. In general, he sees Romney winning and strengthening the U.S. economy, leading to an increase in real estate and assets prices, pulling in foreign capital and raising the value of the U.S. dollar—a net deflationary force on the global economy that will attract capital specifically from China.
罗姆尼大有希望啊!
我预计最迟2013年第三季度人民币贬值,如果,中国央行确实是拼命推移到那个时间段,人民币贬值那就应该是一次性贬值不低于40%。人民币如果发生一次性贬值,国内所有期货都可能在一次性贬值后的2~3月时间全部关闭。
He notes earlier in the piece that a lot of Chinese gold was purchased at high prices and he's specifically looking at the futures market. He obviously recommends investors hold U.S. dollars, but if they are in gold they will not see the renminbi price collapse in the end.

I don't agree with his economic reasoning, but his posts are widely read in the blogosphere and from this post answering reader questions and also the comments on posts, it's clear that the theme of buying U.S. dollars for investment is spreading. The seeds of a large renminbi devaluation have been sown in China, with the U.S. dollar seen as the most profitable way to protect against it.

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