2012-11-02

Bad news for China, if true

Conservatives dominate latest line-up for new Communist Party leadership
However, the sources said that the Politburo Standing Committee's likeliest line-up was now packed with conservatives including vice-premier and Chongqing party chief Zhang Dejiang , 65, propaganda chief Liu Yunshan , 65, Shanghai party boss Yu Zhengsheng , 67, and Tianjin party chief Zhang Gaoli , 65.

They said the biggest surprise was the omission of two reform-minded protégés of party general secretary Hu Jintao - party organisation department head Li Yuanchao , who turns 62 this month, and Guangdong party chief Wang Yang , 57 - mainly due to their relative youth and opposition from conservative party elders, including former premier Li Peng .
I expected the fall of Bo Xilai, a victory for reformers, to be followed by a reform-dominated Politburo. Instead, it appears conservatives are taking control, dashing the hopes for serious reform. There may still be economic reform, after all many major economic reforms occurred under Jiang Zemin, but it also could mean the party will maintain its tight grip on the economy.

An opening of the economy could provide the growth spurt necessary to ease the transition to a consumer economy. Without reform, the dead weight of state owned enterprises will tip the economy in the other direction, leading to much slower growth and a potential currency crisis in coming years.

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