2013-05-13

Impeach Obama? It's all in the DJIA

George Will: IRS Actions Against Conservatives An Impeachable Offense

If stocks fall, Obama will be impeached or his administration will be effectively shut down by investigations. The IRS scandal is critical because the IRS is used to implement Obamacare. If conservative groups were targeted for audits and harassment, it means conservatives (or any group out of favor with the current administration) could see their healthcare denied. On top of Benghazi and Fast & Furious, this is a wicthes brew. The only reason scandals aren't shutting down the administration today is because Republicans do not control the Senate. The way things are going, that is unlikely to remain the case. With both Houses, all the scandals of the prior 6 years will be investigated thoroughly. Eric Holder and other officials will not be able to remain in office.

If the Fed were all powerful, you could say only the Bernank could save him. But even Bernanke isn't powerful enough to reverse social mood. The question is whether this boom survives through the 2014 elections or not. Obama might survive impeachment like Clinton because Republicans may gain power in the same manner and ignore the social mood clues, fighting the old battle. However, the long-term Elliot Wave forecast suggests if thinks break, they will break down severely and Obama will not make it out.

Q: How did Clinton survive all those scandals?

Prechter: Actually, anyone who doubts my socionomic thesis need only consider the amazing case of Bill Clinton. As Congress got ready to vote on his ouster, the bull market resumed. The higher the market went, the more feelings against him waned. His popularity remained high, and it saved him. It was the same reason that no one cared when Reagan faced the Iran-Contra scandal. The Lewinsky scandal and lies to the American public didn’t hurt Clinton’s popularity because the president’s popularity reflects social mood, and its best meter, the stock averages, were still on their way to final all-time highs and record valuation in December 1998, the month of his impeachment by the House. That month, Clinton’s approval rating was 73%, which turned out to be his all-time high. Public mood is the key to his resilience, and that comes from the unconscious part of the mind, not the part that weighs facts.

Q: The lies and his behavior didn’t matter?

Prechter: Nope!

Q: What about the next guy?

Prechter: The next president, and maybe even one or two after that, should watch out. They will have to ride out the slide into a deflationary crash and depression. The party of the person who is in office during the worst of it will be devastated politically.

Q: You apparently don’t take sides.

Prechter: No, my analysis is non-partisan.

Q: Can you apply the rules of Elliott to political analysis?

Prechter: The guideline of alternation seems to apply. It has a specific technical meaning in wave formation, but also pertains to social trends. For example, you might recall that Richard Nixon won re-election in a landslide in late 1972 at the peak of a bull market. Despite everyone’s high hopes, he was hounded as a law-breaker and ultimately driven from office in August 1974 by the social mood reflected by the bear market. Bill Clinton took office with the market at a new all-time high amidst strong popularity, a Time “Man of the Year” cover, and high hopes for his performance. Like Nixon, he was hounded as a lawbreaker as the market corrected in 1994. Instead of Watergate, it was Whitewater. But one was a Republican and the other a Democrat. The specifics alternate. The essence repeats.
Excerpt from Why Was Ronald Reagan, Born 100 Years Ago, So Popular?

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