Immigration Amnesty Takes Its Last Breath

It looks like social mood may have finally worn down Washington. This may be the final nail in the coffin for amnesty for illegal aliens in the United States.

How immigration died — Part 1 (Video) (This link goes to the article, but it also has an autoplay video).
Denis McDonough told Gutiérrez that Obama opposed a key concession that Democratic negotiators had made to House Republicans.

Sen. Charles Schumer later called. The New York Democrat, the architect of more liberal legislation from the Gang of Eight that was advancing in the Senate, delivered an even blunter message.

“Stop the progress on the House bill,” Gutiérrez described Schumer as saying. “I want you to stop. You are damaging the Senate proposal moving forward.”
One of things I've repeated on immigration is that the U.S. is proceeding as if this is still the year 2000, at the peak of social mood. The tide has been turning politically, but they continue to act as if nothing has changed. Here we see President Obama and NY Senator Schumer assuming they can get more for their side, effectively killing a deal in the House. The House Republicans are the stumbling block on immigration reform and if social mood had crept more into DC, they would refuse any deal and simply wait it out, since their side is gaining support year after year. Instead, a deal was on the table and the pro-amnesty side killed it because it wasn't good enough. Now with Obama weak due to Obamacare and the 2014 election suddenly looking good for the GOP, this may have been the last shot at immigration reform on pro-amnesty terms.
Tempers flared frequently between Gutiérrez, the colorful Chicago lawmaker revered by immigration advocates, and Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), a Los Angeles liberal who had risen up the ranks of the Democratic leadership.

Immigration reform is widely seen as dead in this Congress, and the finger-pointing has already started.

Both parties are responsible for the effort’s demise.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), for example, refused pleas from GOP negotiators for a commitment to move the House bill. Republicans could never give Democrats a clear sense of how many GOP lawmakers might support the proposal if it ever reached the floor.

Inside the House Group of Eight, momentum toward a deal slowed as negotiations became bogged down in a dispute over healthcare. By the end of May, the group had lost its self-described conservative hardliner, Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho), who quit despite pleas from top Republicans, including Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), that he stay at the table.

...But in a series of interviews with The Hill over the past two months, Democratic and Republican negotiators said the group’s failure stemmed from divisions among Democrats over strategy and policy, as well as Boehner’s refusal to put his weight behind the bill and help steer it through the House.
Boehner is most exposed to the shifting social mood, his job is at risk because he's seeing the political changes brought about by social mood. Democrats were battling over whether to get everything they want, or give up a lot to entice Boehner to push it through the House. They chose poorly.

Speaking of political change:
Whether by retirement or defeat, several of the negotiators had left the House, and each side went searching for replacements. On the Democratic side, Becerra and Rep. Zoe Lofgren (Calif.) remained. The Republicans had Carter, Johnson and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.), whose brother, Lincoln, was an original member of the group.

To replace the Democrats, Becerra recruited Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) and sounded out Gutiérrez, who returned, reluctantly, with a demand that the group soften a provision requiring immigrants in the country illegally to appear in a federal courtroom before they could gain probationary legal status.

The Republicans brought in Labrador, a former immigration attorney who had, in just one term, built a reputation as a conservative firebrand.
Eventually, Labrador backed out.

I don't see an immigration bill coming in 2014. If one does, the Republican House will kill it for fear of losing their jobs. With Obamacare working as a millstone around Democrats' necks, it's possible some of them will oppose it as well, in order to distance themselves even further from Obama. Moving forward, enforcement provisions will have the upper hand in negotiations.

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