2014-03-07

A Reminder on the BEA's Accuracy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Commerce Department gives out GDP estimates. As with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the unemployment rate, they are terrible at turning points. A reminder of that came today when I checked on the consumer indexes put out by Consumer Metrics. They posted this chart showing BEA estimates for first quarter GDP in 2008.

The BEA estimate of GDP growth changed by 3.3% over the past 5 years.

As for the Consumer Metrics own index, here's their Absolute Demand Index, which clearly shows the ongoing depression.


Then there's Railfax's traffic index. We are in the season for the turn in data and one should arrive by the end of the month; the data rebounded in both March 2008 and March 2009.

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