Chinese Cities Can Ease Buying Restrictions

A report out today says that aside from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, cities can adjust buying restrictions themselves. The source is an official quoted by a Southern Weekend (南方周刊)reporter. However, this is not and will not be official policy according to the same official.

The article includes this table of national real estate data:

From left to right: real estate investment; real estate financing; sales by area, sales, average price per sqm, change in average price. For 2014 the data is through Q1. All figures are in 100 million yuan (or sqm) except for the last two.

住建部人士:除北上广深 其它城市限购可自行调节
Chinese property purchase release countdown

Many people live construction department confirmed that in addition to the deep north of Guangzhou, the other cities in the purchase of the policy can be self-regulation, especially in areas where large stocks, but not explicitly posting. Recent northward Guangzhou-Shenzhen market also has severe adjustment, they are observational studies, but the possibility of posting to confirm the purchase of release is unlikely.

Waited four months, Jin Fei mortgage finally down. But when the long-awaited desire to achieve, he suddenly felt so at ease. "You said I was not bought at a high point, ah?" He asked her friends.

This is his life's first home, located in the Beijing South rings inside. Confined stringent restriction policy, Jin Fei no hurry qualified buyers with qualified girlfriend pulled a marriage certificate. After signing the end of 2013, but delays in the mortgage approval is not down, Jin Fei worried that your credit record is in question, to the sales consultant to call, only that "eighty percent of customers have not been approved."

This is not a case, the high hand properties estate agents making almost every loan application for three months or more before a serious impact on the speed of the cash payment, the developer, the chairman of the Southern Weekend reporter 陶红兵 confirmed this.

Jin wait for mortgage approval to fly in four months, the Beijing property market into a state of stagnation, turnover dropped by 40%; national data better, turnover decreased by 7%.

Since March, Hangzhou new disc diving, Qingdao women lost to developers, housing prices hundred glorious bankruptcy, Greentown Song Weiping let out an avalanche of bad news, such as individual shares, property chill very hot.

With the downturn in the property market "culprit" open forum

Over the past decade on the market regulation documents issued a full 179; while the past year, one did not. Even if the central bank held was interpreted as "micro-rescue" of the forum, stressed that talk about politics on the first mortgage, also did not issued a document.

Chinese people have become accustomed to the sluggish property market staged every two or three years, and then again retaliatory growth rhythm. But this time is different from the last decade of the full document on market regulation issued 179 copies; while the past year, one did not adjust fully germinal in the market.

Huaxia Bank [ -0.24% funding research report ] Old Gold, vice president believes that this decision to the "round of market adjustment downward authenticity."

As for the reason, Ren personal microblogging culprit will go in the "loan tightening" on. In addition to relief grant, loan interest rates go up a greater impact, because of the direct relationship to the cost of purchase.

Why banks tightened personal housing mortgage loans, the interest rate market reform from the beginning of 2013, "do not make money, and even loss of 15% of the mortgage." CITIC Bank [ -0.23% funding research report ] the head office, a source told the South Weekend reporter. CRIC Research Center survey of 69 banks recently, also confirmed the bank's first mortgage Jiucheng raised benchmark interest rates even up 10%.

Above the barrier, the central bank on May 12, 2014 opened a commercial bank to convene a forum on political talk emphasized first mortgage - "reasonably determine first home loan interest rates, timely approval and payment."

This symposium, held property frozen moment, being viewed as "micro-bailout" signal. Up to now, the central bank has not yet formally issued a document, which also different from the past.

However, two days after the bank was publicly expressed positive support, CCB is an internal message will increase by 5% the amount of loan lenders.

Ordinary people are more concerned about the property market from hot to cold again on the occasion, "credit limit" has been changed, and administrative controls similar to the previous government's "restriction", will take the opportunity to quit?

Best time window

"Now is the best time to reform the regulation means the window and let the market return market, owned by the government of the government."

This government treats the attitude of market regulation, published in March 2014, "Government Work Report" already reflects that "classification regulation."

An internal speech Deputy Minister of Construction Qiu live after doing further explained: means "to control the real estate market is like a big country rule, must, like cooking a small fish can be treated like local dimming, it is not the whole tune, adjust the overall impact of the smaller better. could use economic means to tune, do not use administrative means to transfer administrative means possible. could tune by the city government, do not be replaced by the central government. "

This is undoubtedly relax or not to purchase the power to the local government, the remaining question is when to quit, in what manner and extent to exit.

Local government, dependent on the depth of the financial land, let the purchase early in the dynamic relaxation on this issue.

2013 national land premium over the 4 trillion yuan highs, while the first four months of 2014, the land acquisition area down 8 percentage points year on year.

With policy advice Research estimates the 45 land finance the purchase of the property market dependence, followed by Hangzhou, Foshan, Nanjing , Changsha, Sanya , Hefei, Fuzhou, Kunming , Jinan, Hangzhou, up to the highest degree of dependence 156.4%.

Local government began to make tentative, since April 2014, Nanning, Zhengzhou, Tongling, Wuxi and other places have introduced policies, including relaxing restrictions qualified buyers to support the loan fund, increase financial subsidies.

The latest rumor is Tianjin, plans to release the third suite directly, but so far no official direct dispatch.

Worth pondering is that, unlike in the past two years, have a place to stop temptation was different, this time to some extent, given the central default.

Who live in a building related departments of the Ministry confirmed to the Southern Weekend reporter, since the beginning of the ministry is to set the tone, "In addition to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen northward outside the city limits of other policy options can be self-regulation, especially in areas where large stocks. but does not explicitly posting. recent northward Guangzhou-Shenzhen also has severe market adjustment, the Ministry is observational study, but still not issued a document that the purchase of exit. "

"Now is the best time to reform the regulation means the window and let the market return market, owned by the government of the government." Trans Union Real Estate Chamber of Commerce president, said Niemeisheng.

"I did not expect it difficult to face."

Enterprise growth capital in place, all of a sudden from the highest point of 33% in 2013 down to 4.5%. "What does this mean? Developers to be short of money."

"I did not expect it difficult to face", although early in the June 2013 Boao Real Estate Forum, predicted that the real estate market has reached a high level, the growth rate will continue to decline, but by 2014 the data four months, or Niemeisheng exceeded expectations.

Niemeisheng most scared of enterprise data growth capital in place, all of a sudden from the highest point of 33% in 2013 down to 4.5%, Days sales outstanding, self-financing, overseas financing, bank loans have declined. "What does this mean? Developers to be short of money."

Money first reaction in the land market, the growth rate of the national land acquisition area has become a negative growth of 8.8 percent from 2013.

Housing prices listed Sunshine City [ 2.88% funding research report ] recently took only a piece of land in Jinjiang, Fujian, still has to sign the agreement before the lock. Deputy General Manager Liao Jianfeng communicate with institutional investors recently when admitted to take the floor at present to adopt a prudent strategy company focused on recycling cash flow.

Ocean Land 2014'd purchased three places at once, but in an interview, Li said Chairman of the Board to adjust land reserves, existing land in 1/3 is 1 million square meters of ultra-large-scale projects, land size is too large for a single project overall turnover efficiency very influential, will take part way back to make adjustments, such as Qinhuangdao part of the land has been returned to the government project to revitalize the stock of land.

However, there are some developers complain, because too little government released land.

In addition to buy less, the new construction area is also greatly reduced. According to the National Bureau of Statistics January-April the national real estate decline in new construction area of ​​20% or more.

Small developers can also choose to buy less densely start, do not hold down the price again, public housing prices in this area are not big maneuvers, especially a lot of public housing prices back to 2014 set no less than 2013 sales growth - China Vanke, Wanda, Country Garden, Poly and other growth is about 20%, of which Poly Real Estate [ 0.62% funding research report ] from January to April contracted area has decreased by 22.17%.

In the Central Plains real estate research department's view, "the land market downturn reflects the developer funding tensions and pessimistic expectations, we expect the second quarter, third quarter, there will be more urban, more developers price run."

This is a root cause of sluggish property market, in addition to the credit crunch Ren identified, Sunshine 100 Real Estate General Manager Fan Xiaochong think it is because "too many overdraft last year, the callback is also normal."

"China's economy is shifting from high to medium speed, followed by real estate shift is normal, but not yet a fundamental economic structure adjustments, slow down more than the overall economy, or will have a negative impact." Niemeisheng think. 2014 first quarter GDP 12.8213 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 7.4%, macroeconomic growth is slowing down.

But Ren has once again become a minority mouth "look more" faction. May 18 night, he published a long article microblogging thousand words, think the turning point did not come: "the difference between the city will be more evident in this year's investment, sales, price increases will be greatly reduced compared with last year. but overall should be stable., or is still growing slightly. "

His argument is supporting the development of the basic elements of the real estate has not fundamentally changed. "Declined from January to April is the high growth compared to the same period last year. Absolute sales area is still the highest amount in addition to last year's history, but the decline started in the amount of subsequent adjustment of supply and demand relationship is bound in the late affect the price. "

Credit plumbing decide prices

Over the past six years, the property is subject to ups and downs in fact getting the credit tightness. Year prices all the way down to tighten credit, credit easing Year rates are high.

On the market and drag down overall economic concerns, several times in the past supported the bailout, but also leading to a rise in prices of retaliatory, but blocking the normal cyclical adjustment of the real estate industry.

Greentown Song Weiping personal stake sale, save perhaps a tragic footnote to stimulate the city. 2008 Greentown was hanging by a thread, and finally because of the 4 trillion to achieve reversal of fate, in 2009 from eighth in the country rose to second in the country, and the completion of the national layout. A result of the purchase of policies issued, the rapid expansion of high-end products quickly become massive inventory, capital chain collapse.

Should the purchase of exit, the property market will boom again, thus repeating the mistakes of the past? Niemeisheng pondered a long while, "said necessarily, this moment was. Most, could care a bottom, not a cliff-style property market fell."

陶红兵 also considered relaxing the restriction is greater than expected impact on the real impact, because in the household are not demanding tier cities, the purchase is not currently practical significance.

Over the past six years, the property is subject to ups and downs in fact getting the credit tightness. Year prices all the way down to tighten credit, credit easing Year rates are high.

Huaxia Bank Deputy Governor of old gold given a set of data: 2008 to 2012, the growth rate of individual housing loans up year on year growth with the national housing price inflation remained the same trend with fall. Began in November 2008, mortgage growth accelerated, prices growth accelerated. 2009-2012 growth rate mortgage fell from January to February, prices growth has slowed down over the same period. 2013 January-May, five rows 60 percent of new loans personal loans rates again in the first half rose 11.98 percent.

Credit again big drain it? Barclays Bank's chief China economist Jian Chang do not think, at competitive high-yield money market funds, the bank's financing costs in the second half of 2013 has increased. They do not tend to offer lower mortgage rates, unless they get more from the People's Bank of China "needs" rather than just "guidelines." President Xi Jinping on May 10 on adapting to the new economic normal expression, also suggests the central government will tolerate "bad news" from the real estate market.

After exiting the purchase, Niemeisheng proposed by limiting the third suite of loans, raise property taxes to curb investment impulse. "Now that the market has to make their own adjustments, why not let the policy formulated by the past price increases from the historical stage, no longer control the property market through administrative means, the use of more market-oriented credit and tax policy?"

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