EU Debate Has Become an Immigration Debate in the UK

UKIP has tapped into the big issue during a period of falling social mood. Since UKIP is being attacked as racist and that charge will only explode if they achieve a big win this month, this will be a test of the social mood environment. If 2000 was not the Grand Supercycle top, this charge will stick. If it was the top, then nothing will stop UKIP and using the charge of racism will decrease its strength, not because racism will gain popularity, but rather because the charge will be seen as coming from an exhausted political movement.

If the majority of the public want to curtail immigration and the reaction of the opposition parties is to call all those people names, UKIP will cruise to victory. To use a current analogy, it would be like a right-wing politician calling everyone who favors gay marriage and the pro-gay marriage party "perverts" and thinking this is a good way to defeat his opponents. It might have worked at one time when the public agreed, but it will not work today.