2014-05-23

UKIP Scores Big Win in Local Elections; Shockwaves Will Hit Europe and the U.S.

At the same time the European elections are underway, the UK had local elections. UKIP was projected to win about 80 seats and they themselves were aiming for 100 seats. Already, they are at 150 seats and the vote count isn't finished. This is a good sign for UKIP in the European election as it indicates UKIP voters are coming out to the polls. The big news is that UKIPs surprise strength confirms something the party has argued for well over a year now: support is coming from all over Britain, including Labour. UKIP is seen by media and the political establishment as a threat to the Conservatives because it falls on the right side of the political spectrum, but UKIP is actually tapping into the deeper social mood shift to the right.

This mood shift to the right is the key point to understanding the changing political scene. All parties right and left moved to the left in the post-war period. Now they will move to the right. In some countries, the economic socialists will add a more nationalistic foreign/immigration policy and win victory over right-wing parties. The issues that drive the elections and the national debate are moving to the right and this favors the right-wing parties, but left-wing parties that adapt will win.

In the UK, the three major parties all abdicated the field to UKIP on issues such as immigration. Until one of those parties tacks right, UKIP will have no challenger and will grow rapidly. UKIP is also not a traditional conservative party, so they're more appealing to some Labour voters. This is why they are hammering Labour as much as the Conservatives, and perhaps more so. UKIP leader Nigel Farage, in addition to warning that his party is as big a threat to Labour as it is to the Conservatives, also said that their data shows Labour voters are sticking with UKIP more than Conservative voters. Some Conservative voters will pull the lever for UKIP in the European elections because they want out of the EU, but they will vote Conservative in the national election. Labour voters are ditching Labour altogether.

If UKIP continues to rise, they will not only change the debate in the U.K., but in the entire Anglosphere, to say nothing of the damage they will deal the EU if Britain exits. The non-existent immigration restrictionist position in the U.S., support for which could run as high as 70% based on some polls, could emerge as a major electoral issue. In Europe, the former Soviet bloc countries seek security, and military support is strongest from the U.S. and U.K. If Britain is out of the EU, membership doesn't have as much benefit for countries that chafe at EU economic controls.

The European election results aren't in yet, but the evidence points to a big turnout for UKIP there as well. If so, a political earthquake will have occurred. What follows may be an electoral tsunami in 2015 that sweeps away the old order, a wave that will reach as far as the 2016 U.S. elections.

Local elections 2014: live results map

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