2014-06-24

Tianjin Industrial Growth Rate Falls to 13 Year Low in May; City Government Shocked

Tianjin's industrial value added growth rate plunged to 8.7% in May, the lowest in 13 years and below the national rate of 8.8%. Tianjin had the highest growth rate in the nation for 8 years until 2013 and was consistently above double digits, sometimes climbing about 20% growth. 2010 marked a turning point, since then growth rates have come down. Growth was still 13% in 2013, but is only 10.9% yoy from January to May, indicating the slowdown is accelerating given May's low number.

One explanation for the slowdown is a reliance on heavy industry and less on advanced industries such as technology and aerospace. The slowdown is hitting industrial sectors hard. A snip from the piece below:
One analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald, Tianjin industrial slowdown, and the environment nationwide, "Tianjin petrochemical, iron and steel , automobiles this year, the growth rate is very low, or even negative growth, while iron and steel, petrochemicals are in a downturn, while Tianjin Automobile in the adjustment. "

"Tianjin industrial raw materials account for a large proportion of the economic slowdown in the country's big trend, Tianjin adjustment should be long-term." He said.

Data show that in the first four months, the added value of oil and gas exploration in Tianjin declined by 2.9%. Automotive industry fell by 2%. Eight advantages of industrial output value of Tianjin (including equipment manufacturing, petrochemical, electronic information, textile, new energy and new materials, bio-medicine, aerospace) growth rate of only 9.1%, in April only 7.2%.

.......Statistics show that from January to April this year. Tianjin Natural crude oil production fell by 5.2%, the yield is only 9.69 million tons. Chemical fiber and ethylene production was 39,300 tons, 436,100 tons, decreased by 5.3%, 0.4%. Automobile production was 156,500, a decrease of 17.9%. In addition, pig iron, crude steel production are about 7 million tons, a decrease of 5% -7%.

天津5月工业增速为13年来最低 媒体称市政府“震惊”
What's wrong with Tianjin?

21st Century Business Herald was informed that a number of recent studies of the Tianjin meeting to further development of intensive meetings, the only one aim is to find a new way of Tianjin.

"Just picking up the subject, soon to carry out research." June 23, the city has one expert told 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

According to statistics, in May this year over Tianjin scale industrial added value growth rate of only 8.7%, which is well documented in several statistical department of the lowest in 13 years. Affected by the Tianjin Economic sharp slowdown.

Prior to 10 years, industrial growth has been showing more than the size of double-digit growth in Tianjin. Beginning in 2002, the Tianjin Economic growth reached a second country, the economic growth rate was 12.7%, above-scale industrial growth rate of 22.8%. By 2010, the industrial growth rate of 23.7%, when GDP growth rate of 17.4% for the nation. The city's economic growth in the first place have continued until 2013, has changed over the past eight years, Inner Mongolia's economic growth has been among the first condition.

And in May of this year, Tianjin above-scale industrial added value growth rate for the first time into the single digits and below the national growth rate of 8.8%.

Industrial and economic stall Tianjin Tianjin shocked multiple departments. At present, Tianjin municipal government and related sectors of the economy to start looking for emergency reasons, many experts have been asked policy. At present the preliminary conclusion that the decline in industrial growth, non-short-term caused this whole economic transformation and Tianjin relevant.

Tianjin Economic Development Strategy Institute director PARTY Zangxue Ying believes that Tianjin's economy has to a new turning point. "Location is central to northern economic center in Tianjin, the past is the development of heavy industry, although fast, but in fact, other high-tech industries like aerospace proportion is not high."

"Now Tianjin need to accelerate the pace of scientific and technological innovation, speed up industrial restructuring, in particular, to the development of services, to achieve large economies in transition." 臧学英 said.

Bottleneck in the development of the new district

21st Century Business Herald has learned that Tianjin's per capita GDP (per capita GDP) for the first in the country, far more than Beijing and Shanghai.

In 2012, for example, per capita GDP was 93,173 yuan in Tianjin, far more than 85,373 yuan in Shanghai, Beijing 87,475 yuan. Tianjin year to 612.3 billion yuan of industrial added value, almost as Beijing's industrial added value of 329.4 billion yuan 1 times.

The gap between Tianjin and Beijing-Shanghai is also shrinking. In 2002, GDP was 215 billion yuan in Tianjin, Beijing and Shanghai were 431.5 billion yuan, 574.1 billion yuan. By 2012, GDP was 1.2893 trillion yuan in Tianjin, and Beijing 17879, Shanghai, 2.0181 trillion yuan, greatly narrowing the gap.

This Tianjin Economic and rapid growth in the past 10 years about.

Beginning in 2002, Tianjin's economic growth was 12.7%, industrial growth rate of 22.8%. By 2010, GDP growth reached 17.4 percent, industrial growth was 23.7%.

But from the beginning of 2010, the slowdown in industrial growth year after year. When in 2012 the above-scale industrial added value growth Tianjin 16.1%, in 2013 only 13%. 2014 January to May, the above-scale industrial added value increased by 10.9%, the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points over the first four months, the monthly growth rate in May was 8.7 percent, the first time there has been less than 8.8% of the country's situation .

Tianjin industrial growth slowed down, making the Tianjin municipal government in charge of industry and very shocked.

One analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald, Tianjin industrial slowdown, and the environment nationwide, "Tianjin petrochemical, iron and steel , automobiles this year, the growth rate is very low, or even negative growth, while iron and steel, petrochemicals are in a downturn, while Tianjin Automobile in the adjustment. "

"Tianjin industrial raw materials account for a large proportion of the economic slowdown in the country's big trend, Tianjin adjustment should be long-term." He said.

Data show that in the first four months, the added value of oil and gas exploration in Tianjin declined by 2.9%. Automotive industry fell by 2%. Eight advantages of industrial output value of Tianjin (including equipment manufacturing, petrochemical, electronic information, textile, new energy and new materials, bio-medicine, aerospace) growth rate of only 9.1% in April only 7.2%.

In this regard, Director Institute for Industrial Research Center of Nankai University Binhai Ma Yunze think, Tianjin past mainly rely on large industrial projects led model of development, has been difficult to sustain.

Ma Yunze said that in the past more than the Binhai New Area of ​​land, but now has been very difficult to find, plus a lot of industries are overcapacity type, so relying solely on the Binhai New Area, Tianjin has been difficult to make the economy sustainable.

Currently like Wuqing County to develop technology and logistics industry, to undertake the transfer of technology industry Beijing, its comparative advantage or even worse than the Marina. "Tianjin to the new development bottleneck area, the second industry and services needed to accelerate the integration would be difficult to re-fast." He said.

Need to adjust the industrial structure

This argument makes sense.

21st Century Business Herald has learned that although the per capita GDP in Tianjin, the country's highest, but as of 2013, the tertiary industry accounted for only 48.1%, which is nearly 80% higher than Beijing, the proportion is about 60% of the gap between the big Shanghai. Tianjin, the proportion of secondary industry in 2013 still reached 50.6 percent, half of the city's economy by industry, that industry in Tianjin Binhai New Area.

In this regard, Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Industrial Economics Industrial Layout room Master Chen Yao pointed out that the next step should vigorously develop the service industry in Tianjin, while the industrial structure needs to be adjusted.

State to locate in Tianjin is the economic center of the north, an international port city, Tianjin port in recent years focused on the development of the use of its iron and steel, petrochemical and other industries.

"The industry needs to extend the chain, if you simply just developing steel plates, etc., are vulnerable to the impact of macro economic trends. need to improve the technological content and reduce pollution. "he said.

At present, Tianjin many industrial products are cut.

Statistics show that from January to April this year. Tianjin Natural crude oil production fell by 5.2%, the yield is only 9.69 million tons. Chemical fiber and ethylene production was 39,300 tons, 436,100 tons, decreased by 5.3%, 0.4%. Automobile production was 156,500, a decrease of 17.9%. In addition, pig iron, crude steel production are about 7 million tons, a decrease of 5% -7%.


General Steel plates can be used in automobile manufacturing, Tianjin Automobile production may also affect the production of steel in Tianjin. Jia Xinguang, auto industry experts believe that vehicle production cuts and Tianjin FAW adjustment is not in place related.

"The acquisition of Tianjin FAW Xiali , the original development of the brand is not well preserved, the new product is not up, affecting their development. "said Jia Xinguang.

Zangxue Ying believes Tianjin in the past to develop heavy industry, there is a contradiction with the requirements of this resource ecology and sustainable development, Tianjin future needs to accelerate industrial restructuring and upgrading.

Statistics show that Tianjin traditional eight industries, the real high-tech all together less than 40%. "Tianjin needs after this pain, it is possible to achieve the transformation." 臧学英 said.

It is reported that Tianjin eight competitive industry equipment manufacturing, petrochemical, electronic information industry the proportion reached 40%, 15%, 15%, and aerospace, biomedicine, new energy, new materials, a total of only about 10%.

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