2014-06-12

Tight Credit or Weak Real Estate?

In Wuhan, mortgage approval has been shortened to 2 to 7 days, but some people who applied for loans at the start of the year still haven't received them. Interest rates are also 5-10% above the benchmark, in some cases 15%. The call to lend to home buyers made by the central bank last month is only having limited impact. Competition with Internet banking and low profits on mortgages are two of the reasons cited for the tight credit conditions. However, weak real estate is another factor. Banks are worried about falling home prices. Survey data cited in the article: banks prefer to lend in first- and second-tier cities, at low interest rates and in large amounts. In other words, the borrowers with better credit.

房贷紧张局面仍未松动 银行缺钱还是楼市危险?
Although after the central bank, the CBRC two regulators relay "propaganda", live mortgage money is still tight unsolved. Interest rates go up, cumbersome procedures, lenders wait months or even no money lending. The current situation in the property market continued downward, so many banks dare to lend.

Mortgage "expensive" Wait a minute

Reporters recently in Wuhan, the survey found that many banks have made ​​it clear that mortgage interest rates on the basis of the benchmark rate go up 5% -10%, up to 15%. Similar "high mortgage" phenomenon is very common in the country. Financial 360 financial search platform monitoring data show that in recent months, the prime rate commercial loans not fall trend continues.

Not only "mortgage expensive" and "mortgage slow" down the previous two weeks could be approved housing loans, apply for loans from now to three or four months or more, also waiting in line.

360 Financial data show that at present, the first suite of loan approval time is often faster, usually in 2-7 days, but lending is still a long time, and even the beginning of the loan up to now has not been issued. Meanwhile, although there are some state-owned banks began to re-apply for the mortgage business, but the 21 cities surveyed, there are 14 cities in the stop lending phenomenon, in which the majority of joint-stock commercial banks.

Limited utility regulators vocal

This fact has caused tensions in the regulatory attention. As early as May 12, the central bank has held symposiums housing finance services, requires the rational allocation of credit resources, give priority to households for the first time to buy their ordinary commodity housing loan demand, reasonably determine the first home loan interest rates, while improving service efficiency timely approval and payment of housing loans to qualified individuals.

The statement did not take long, and the other financial regulators CBRC also audible. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office held the 6th, CBRC Vice Chairman Wang Zhaoxing said, to continue to implement differentiated housing loan policy, the strong support of the first set of housing demand and curb investment and speculative demand for housing, real estate developers to focus on capital, cash flow and financial and other conditions, concerned about the risk of real estate developers to finance capital rupture brought about.

For the two high-profile propaganda, the market will soon feel its power, a lot of bank lending rate has accelerated, but the first mortgage interest rates have yet to loosen, overall tensions remain unsolved.

China International Economic and Exchange Center Associate Professor Wang Tianlong believes that the current rapid rise of Internet banking to some extent, the diversion of funds of banks, deposits sucked a lot of the community, leading commercial banks solicit depositors pressure, tight credit lines. Secondly, based on a comprehensive consideration of cost and profitability of commercial banks also take the initiative to locate individual housing loans will be adjusted accordingly. Insiders pointed out that the plight of approaching the banks still exist, and low income housing loans to individuals exist, a small amount of two features, the banks of this enthusiasm is not high.

Risks forcing banks to deepen the sidelines

In the past, individual housing loans has been the bank's asset quality, low business risk, good asset quality, are considered "meat and potatoes", but with the real estate market is not the economy, more and more real estate began to cut prices in some places even "unfinished", the potential default risk housing loans also increased. This was not optimistic that the current bank a major cause of mortgage.

The survey found that 360 mortgage financing, banks prefer to lend a second-tier cities, lower interest rate, loan amount more abundant; against fourth-tier cities to control or reduce mortgage delivery, the relative increase lending rates. Analysis of the industry, which means that different areas of the property market will continue to divide.

China Index Research Institute research director at Central Market Guo-Zheng Li believes that in recent years, housing prices continued to boom and loose monetary conditions are closely related. The current downward trend in the property market is expected to lead to changes in banks tighten lending operations involving housing. "This will lead to further tension in the real estate market funds, developers are forced to cut prices to sell inventory to ease the financial pressure, thus boosting the property market trend."

35 total urban housing stock hit a record high

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 11 - June 10, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute released "May new commercial housing inventory report." The report notes that as of the end of May, the 35 cities monitored by the newly built commercial housing stock hit a record high, the most significant increase in first-tier cities.

Monitoring data show that as of the end of May, the total including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the four first-tier cities, including 35 cities in new commodity housing stock was 255,700,000 square meters, growth of 2.7%, an increase of 20.1%. Stock hit a record high.

Specifically, 35 cities, 29 cities in inventory grew. National property market turnover continued to decline, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Only a single month of May, 35 new cities in new residential monthly supply of 21.98 million square meters, an increase of 2.8% qoq, an increase of 0.2%. This is the highest level of new supply in a single month this year, the volume is greater than in May. The May volume of 15.2 million square meters, growth of 1.1%, down 17.4%.

Easy Home Researcher Yan Yuejin analysis pointed out that housing prices in May increased efforts to push the plate, but the market sentiment remained bearish heavy new supply part undigested transformed into inventory. It also shows that although the overall market push plate rhythm gradually accelerated, but not significantly to the improvement of speed.

Yuejin Yan also said that in May the unprecedented pressure on the stock, further exacerbating the pessimism of the property market. Housing prices in the first few months a lot of weak sales, due to financial pressures push plate rhythm, trying to price change strategies to improve sales performance. But "Red May" market fall, sentiment is still strong, which leads to overstock inventory to cycle longer.

He said, "May inventory to cycle more than 16 months, showed unprecedented pressure to melt the same time, compared to the historical data can be found in the October 2011-May 2012 period, the monthly cycle of inventory to basically level in 16 months or more, this time in 70 cities nationwide housing index appeared chain of negative growth phenomenon, which is a decline in house prices. "

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