2014-10-21

Real Estate, Fixed Asset Investment Slows Sharply Again

The cumulative growth rate for real estate investment in 2014 slipped to 12.5% in September, down from 13.2% in August. The drop was baked into the cake because the single month yoy growth figures have been running much slower than the cumulative total. In July the monthly yoy growth figure was 11.9%. In August, it slumped to 9.9%. In September, the yoy single month real estate investment growth rate fell to 8.6%.

Falling producer prices are starting to have an effect on some of the numbers. Going by the raw data, the yoy growth figures are coming in below the gov't reported number. This amounts to a small difference in the cumulative numbers, but does not explain the big gap between the September yoy growth figure of 8.6% and the cumulative figure of 12.5%; investment is slowing sharply as the year goes on.

Original RE investment report is available here: 2014年1-9月份全国房地产开发和销售情况.

The other investment numbers:

Fixed Asset Investment: the Chinese govt reports the 16.1% cumulative growth through September. 2014年1-9月份全国固定资产投资 The raw unadjusted data shows growth was only 15.7% cumulative. As for the yoy single month comparison, growth fell to 11.5% in September, down from the 13.3% growth rate in August. As with RE investment, well below trend.

Private Fixed Asset Investment: the official number is 18.3% cumulative yoy growth. Unadjusted data shows 17.7% growth. In August the single month growth figure was 16.0%; growth collapsed to 11.7% in September. 2014年1-9月份民间固定资产投资

Industrial production did jump in September. Here's ZeroHedge: Do You Believe In Chinese Miracles? Manufacturing is a leading indicator, but investment is a leading indicator of manufacturing. The data points to a accelerating slowdown in Q4 unless the October numbers rebound.

Here's the real estate detail:
Real Estate Investment Growth Rate

Land purchases by developer (area)
New Home Sales By Area (yellow) and Yuan (blue)

Developer Capital Growth Rate


Table  2014 Jan-Sep national real estate development and sales
Indicators
The absolute amount
An increase ( )
Real estate investment (¥100 Million)
68751
12.5
 Of which: Residential
46725
11.3
    Office
4008
22.8
    Commercial space business
10342
22.8
Housing construction area (10,000 square meters)
673,230
11.5
 Of which: Residential
479,017
8.1
    Office
27381
24.5
    Commercial space business
86673
20.1
New housing construction area (10,000 square meters)
131,411
-9.3
 Of which: Residential
91754
-13.5
    Office
5315
15.4
    Commercial space business
18263
0.0
Housing area (10,000 square meters)
56504
7.2
 Of which: Residential
43269
5.1
    Office
1415
15.3
    Commercial space business
6408
12.2
Land acquisition area (10,000 square meters)
24014
-4.6
Land transaction price (¥ 100 million)
6781
11.5
Sales of commercial area (10,000 square meters)
77132
-8.6
 Of which: Residential
67669
-10.3
    Office
1647
-9.5
    Commercial space business
5468
7.0
Commercial sales (million)
49227
-8.9
 Of which: Residential
40516
-10.8
    Office
1986
-19.7
    Commercial space business
5469
6.8
Real estate for sale (10,000 square meters)
57148
28.0
 Of which: Residential
37676
28.5
    Office
2250
34.7
    Commercial space business
10982
27.1
Real estate development enterprise funds in place (million)
89869
2.3
 Of which: domestic loans
16288
11.8
    Utilization of foreign capital
430
9.9
    Self-financing
37535
11.5
    Other funds
35616
-9.1
     Among them: the deposit and advance payment
21582
-11.1
        Individual mortgage loans
9794
-4.9

Table  2014 Jan-Sep Real Estate Development Investment
Land  area
Investment 
(million)

An increase 
)

Residential
Residential
Total national
68751
46725
12.5
11.3
  Eastern region
38737
26062
12.6
10.9
  Central Region
14536
10260
10.7
12.0
  Western Region
15479
10402
14.0
11.5

Table  2014 Jan-Sep Real Estate Sales
Area
Real estate sales
Commercial sales
Absolute 
(10,000 square meters)
An increase 
)
Absolute 
(million)
An increase 
)
Total national
77132
-8.6
49227
-8.9
  Eastern region
35908
-15.3
28418
-15.5
  Central Region
20693
-2.9
10337
1.1
  Western Region
20531
-0.6
10472
2.8

No comments:

Post a Comment