Where Have All The Aunties Gone? Shanghai Gold Trades At Discount

The gold premium in Shanghai is gone as the Chinese aunties have given up their gold hoarding efforts. Fear not, gold bugs, for they are being replaced by Indian aunties and central bankers.

iFeng: 黄金大博弈:“央妈”接棒“大妈”入场抄底

Since the second half of this year, the international price of gold continued to fall, has fallen to four-year low. Last year, China recorded refresh buy gold aunt, did not re crazy bargain-hunting, but cover their gold to be up.

Currently, the dollar appreciation background under the international investment bank, known as the "big mouth" almost unanimously bearish gold market, the international gold price Scream "no bottom line." And behind, India, the United States and other countries, "Aunt" deterred "Chinese Mother" footsteps crazy suck Golden State, Russia, Kazakhstan and other "central Mom" is also vigorously engaged in hoarding gold. Today, the average cost has fallen below the international price of gold, not really the bottom line yet? Switzerland upcoming "Golden referendum 'can save the price of gold it?

"Aunt" cover payments to be up

A shares staring up every day, but only guarding Yuwen Ling home five gold bars. Just two years in Beijing Yuwen Ling, when the price of gold plummeted last year, all with more than ten million savings on the investment in gold bullion.

In retrospect, Yuwen Ling told the China Securities Journal reporter, in April last year, the price of gold soon as he plunged a hundred dishes to accompany their elders to buy gold and silver jewelry, was also very supportive of the elders, said, "gold prices for so many years, finally have a chance to fall "Under the guidance of the gold shop attendant analysis of breath bought five 100 g investment in gold bullion.

"Before did not find out about the gold market, just think a good deal, then think about the price of gold will soon rise up." Yuwen Ling said, before investing in gold to buy himself some financial products, income is not high but relatively stable last year When buying bullion, but also think it is picking up a cheap, but counted down, investment in gold bullion has been a loss of almost 30 percent, is now selling is not only holding, clutching his gold prices go up, etc.

Yuwen Ling said, now look, in fact, buy gold and silver jewelry is very cost-effective, the money take a little blind investment in gold bullion.

NATIONAL NATURAL is Yuwen Ling colleagues, too, and Yuwen Ling had the same experience to buy gold. NATIONAL NATURAL told reporters that he at first investment bank "account gold" (also known as paper gold), but because of its high transaction costs ultimately choose to purchase a few roots when the price of gold bullion investment fell, but now find that there are drawbacks to invest in physical gold , not two-way trade, which can only do more but not short.

Rare gold with good circulation functions and hedging attributes much "aunt" welcome. 2012 Before the decade is gold "golden years", the international gold prices skyrocket to near $ 2,000 an ounce, that people used to think gold "only rise and not fall."

Usually in the gold price decline, "love a bargain," the Chinese buyers will be flocking, so that the price of gold stopped the decline. The first half of 2013, the international price of gold plummeted nearly 27 percent uncharacteristically, China buying gold aunt shot, win Wall Street capital predators War fame, "Wall Street Journal" and even specially coined the term "dama".

However, the situation is now different. The current market downturn makes the price of gold fell by more than two years ago, more than a third, the minimum fell to $ 1,130.4 an ounce on November 6. Previously, NYSE traders MarkOtto release micro-Bo, ridicule Chinese aunt said: "? Gold suffered heavy losses, where their aunt went to it a must buy something else."

According to the China Gold Association, the latest data show that three quarters of 2014, China's gold consumption of 754.82 tons, compared with the same period last year, reducing the consumption of 205.76 tons, down 21.42 percent. Of which 581.38 tons of gold jewelry with gold, an increase of 0.45%; 119.42 tons of gold bullion, down 62.58%. This also means that as gold prices, gold and silver jewelry "rigid demand" still growing, while gold "investment demand" by the price of gold plummeted suppressed.

In addition, the unusual is that, as the world's largest physical gold trading platform, the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold price comparison global benchmark price, the premium has become a discount, which highlights the weakness in Chinese demand for physical gold - because of all the physical China gold transactions will go through the exchange, and therefore can be seen as reflecting a reliable indicator of China's investment demand.

"Central Mom" ​​shot hoard gold

In China aunt who hesitates on the occasion, Indian aunt and Russia, Kazakhstan "Central Mom" ​​Start shot.

Chief Investment Officer of the World Gold Council Far East Liuzhong Guang director told reporters that the Indian market in the third quarter gold demand reached 183 tonnes, an increase of 60%, last year's third quarter performance is very weak jewelery demand in India, as India's gold imports introduced restrictions related policies.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC) released this year, Russia purchased 115 tons of gold, of which the second and third quarters of the total purchase of 109 tons, exceeding the previous two years to buy the amount of the year. Purchase amount (55 tons) for the third quarter is 59% of total net purchases of global central banks.

At the same time, central banks also have to increase its gold reserves. While central banks in the third quarter of 2014 bought a total of 92.8 tons of gold, down 9%, but this is the world's 15th consecutive quarter of central banks become net buyers of gold. In the past seven quarters, including six quarters central bank demand reached about 100 tons, which is since 2010 a very significant growth.

"There are reasons behind the central banks continue to promote the diversification of asset holdings of dollar reserves, and ongoing geopolitical crisis." 刘中光 said the central bank is still important buyers of gold, in the case of many economic and geopolitical wounds still unhealed Central banks once again to seek asylum and dispersed configuration of the gold reserves.

Industry experts pointed out that the world's central banks buy gold moves, mainly in response to continued easing of global monetary devaluation and lower capital outflows may impact on the domestic market, the outlook is not optimistic about the gold price. Gold prices continued to fall in the occasion, the central bank to buy gold future behavior can only be considered as international reserves diversification perform normal behavior, but the behavior of the central bank to buy gold does not stimulate investment needs of the organization and resident investors, because the dollar future real interest rates gradually increased and low inflation , the high opportunity cost of holding gold.

In this regard, Xinhua wealth Guan Wei, chief researcher, said during the global central banks continued to buy gold, the gold market has experienced both bull phase, also suffered a bear market, and financial institutions and individual investors compared to central banks for the sensitivity of the price of gold does not high when adjusting gold reserves, more from the political, foreign exchange reserve structure, financial security and other long-term considerations, rather than to win profits through price fluctuations.

The gold market "bubble" squeeze out

Clearly, the price of gold fell to sweep the Chinese Aunt risk buying interest. Shanghai, a private agency person interview with this reporter, said that from a lot of important indicators, gold may have been "oversold", then below the cost line, supply and demand fundamentals play a more important will be ups and downs in the price of gold role in jewelery demand season is approaching rebound can be expected.

The people believe that gold as a symbol of wealth, but also a hedge inflation tool sharply last year, China Aunt hunters, grab the gold tide over the country, which is behind the lack of Chinese investment goods in the future for a long time, Aunt of China to buy gold will continue to exist, but not so concentrated, obviously.

Recently, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that considering gold as governments 'value for money' policy enforced outside, under the current situation, gold is a good place to hedge against inflation.

However, due to the Fed rate hike cycle is about to enter, in this context, the international price of gold "bottom line" where it is particularly important.

Generally believed that the bottom of the commodity price measure is the cost of its production lines. However, the pessimist analysts believe that despite the market that the price of gold has fallen below the actual cost of production, but decided that the price of gold investment demand, from historical data, gold might return to 2008 levels before the Fed implemented QE, namely 800 $ 900 / oz, and if inflation is not up, then prices are likely to be lower.

In addition, bearish also said that the decision gold price factor is investment demand for gold, not physical demand, even if the end of the Indian jewelery demand increased significantly, in terms of gold, and there is no strong boost, especially China, as the largest gold decorated demand declining demand for the country's nearly offset the growth in demand for gold in other countries to bring good news.

Guan Wei told reporters that the downward trend in the price of gold is becoming increasingly apparent, with the continued decline in the price of gold, as well as the traditional Chinese holidays approaching, the future physical gold demand is likely to be warmer, and play a supporting gold prices, but in the strength of the dollar Under the background of the possibility of gold trend reversal is unlikely.

Optimists believe that the current price of gold has fallen to the bottom, speculators have been gradually fading market bubble almost squeeze, although the macro background suppression, the gold price short term is difficult to pick up, but continued to decline in momentum is clearly inadequate.

Outside the booming gold ETF, tracking the spot gold price volatility of financial derivatives. All along, the changes in gold ETF holdings abroad is an important barometer of the international gold price. According to authoritative statistics show that since the beginning of the global gold ETF holdings of only 84 tonnes, while the reduction of the size of last year is 699 tonnes.

November 30, Switzerland will be the "gold referendum ', whether to vote on the country's gold reserves accounted for more than 20% can be raised to. If the Swiss referendum passed, the amount of gold in Switzerland might want to buy in 1500-1800 tons, which will be completed within the next five years, equivalent to 7% -10% of the world's gold output. According to the Dutch bank expects the Swiss referendum, if passed, will likely reverse the gold weakness, could push gold up 17%.

"Golden referendum 'influence, last Friday (November 14) in New York gold prices rising fast, up close to $ 1,193 an ounce, higher than the intraday low of $ 40.

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