2014-12-08

Chinese Imports Drop in November, Worst Since Lehman

China's November imports fall unexpectedly, export growth eases
China's imports unexpectedly fell 6.7 percent in November from a year ago, far below forecasts for a 3.9 percent gain in an weak performance that is likely to stoke concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy.

Exports were also much weaker than forecast, growing 4.7 percent versus expectations of 8.2 percent.

..."This is partly a reflection of lower commodity prices and base effects, but these two factors cannot fully explain the weak import number and we have to assume that poor domestic demand has played a part."

Wondering what actually caused the drop in imports? Here's the report: 前11个月我国外贸进出口平稳增长

Bilateral trade with the EU, US and ASEAN was up strongly. Bilateral trade with Japan was down 0.7% and trade with Hong Kong was down 8.9%. Hong Kong is not a trivial trade partner. Year to date, months, trade with Hong Kong (2.05 trillion yuan) exceeds trade with Japan (1.75 trillion yuan) and comes close to ASEAN totals (2.66 trillion yuan). Year to date bilateral trade with the EU reached 3.43 trillion yuan in November, and bilateral trade with the U.S. hit 3.09 trillion yuan. China has reported has reported strange Hong Kong trade numbers before......

The initial numbers don't show poor domestic demand. The number of cars imported increased 20.7% Commodity imports were up, but prices fell. Maybe there will be more to the story when more details are released.

In imports, the main commodity imports increased, the general decline in the average price of imports. The first 11 months, China imported 846 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 13.4%, the average import price of 633.6 yuan per ton, down 21.4%; crude oil 278 million tons, an increase of 9%, the average import price of 4662 yuan per ton, down 3.8%; 88.61 million tons of grain, an increase of 15.8%; among soybean 62.87 million tons, an increase of 12.3%, the average import price of 3526 yuan per ton, down 5.9%; plastics in primary forms 23.11 million tons, an increase of 3.8%, import price to 12,500 yuan per ton, up 1.2%; steel 13.22 million tons, an increase of 2.7%, the average import price of 7647 yuan per ton, up 1.6%; unwrought copper and copper 4.404 million tons, an increase of 8.3%, imports are price of 45,600 yuan per ton, down 6%.

In addition, imports of 264 million tons of coal, down by 9.4%, imports average price of 472.8 yuan per ton, down 15.1 percent; 26.78 million tons of refined oil, decrease of 26.1%, the average import price of 4922 yuan per ton, down 1.1%; unwrought rolled aluminum and aluminum 799,000 tons, down by 4.6%, imports average price of 26,600 yuan per ton, down 0.8%.

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