2015-01-23

Where's the Recession? Real Estate Investment By Province, December 2014

Real estate investment contracted nationally in December. There was no single month decline in real estate investment based on the NBS data that goes back to the early 2000s, the worst single month was 1% growth at the start of 2009. Last month, real estate contracted 1.9% nationally versus December 2013, though growth was 10.5% for the year.

Following are several charts of individual province's real estate growth figures. The YTD growth figure, the headline number that was 10.5% growth in December, is in red. If you want to see a province that isn't listed, put it in the comments and I can add it. The most important ones are the top 5 provinces for real estate investment. The number fluctuates month-to-month, but these provinces are consistently at the top and they accounted for 44% of national real estate investment in December.

Liaoning was covered in Liaoning Sounds Warning on Chinese Economy. It, along with Heilongjiang, is heavily exposed to industries such as steel, coal and oil. These provinces turned to real estate as a way to generate growth in recent years, but now everything is collapsing simultaneously. Jiangsu province is a wealthy province surrounding Shanghai. It's unclear if this dip will be a one-off drop or a trend. Zhejiang province is the center of the 2014 real estate slowdown, with cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo and Wenzhou figuring prominently.

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