2015-02-17

No Bounce in Home Prices Nationally in January, But Clear Bifurcation

Many headlines focused on the year-on-year price drop, but since a) prices are still falling and b) the peak was May to July 2014, this isn't surprising. The two important revelations in the data are that home prices did not rebound in January. The average price decline month-on-month was 0.43%, slightly more than the 0.40% decline in December. Nationally, the recovery stalled. Second, there is more bifurcation in the market. First-tier new and existing home prices increased or held steady in many cases, with declines limited to a drop of about 0.1%. In real estate, price follows sales and we've been seeing sales increase in first-tier cities in recent months, now prices are stabilizing. New home prices are down 5.1% yoy.

Since 2010, average prices are up 8.2% nationally.

March: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up

Existing home prices were stronger than new home prices again in January. The decline was to 0.36%, slightly ahead of December's 0.32% mom decline. Prices are down 4.4% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have only risen an average of 2.4%. Of the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, 26 have existing homes prices below 2010 levels.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.42% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.46%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.57%. The trend is the same for yoy and prices gains since 2010, with large homes only up an average of 6.1% since 2010 versus 10.4% for houses smaller than 90 sqm.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.36% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.33%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.39%. Notably, existing homes larger than 144 sqm are down 0.27% on average since 2010.

Full report: 2015年1月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

Below are new home price changes, sorted by 1 Year change.


1 Month 1 Year Since 2010
Hangzhou -0.30% -10.10% -7.90%
Shenyang -0.40% -8.40% 10.10%
Shaoguan -0.70% -8.00% 4.60%
Guilin -0.40% -8.00% 9.60%
Dandong -1.60% -7.90% 8.70%
Quanzhou -1.60% -7.70% 0.30%
Luzhou -0.60% -7.70% 5.00%
Changsha -0.30% -7.60% 13.30%
Qingdao -0.60% -7.30% 2.30%
Dalian -0.60% -7.20% 9.50%
Jinzhou -0.90% -7.00% 8.50%
Fuzhou -0.50% -6.50% 12.20%
Baotou -1.10% -6.50% 5.70%
Bengbu -0.50% -6.40% 1.80%
Anqing -0.20% -6.10% 3.00%
Chongqing -0.40% -6.00% 7.50%
Huizhou -0.30% -6.00% 7.80%
Hohhot -0.40% -5.90% 8.50%
Ningbo -0.20% -5.90% -5.60%
Yangzhou -0.60% -5.90% 5.30%
Ganzhou 0.20% -5.90% 8.20%
Nanchong -0.40% -5.90% 5.90%
Yantai -0.60% -5.80% 5.90%
Zhangjiang -0.40% -5.80% 11.20%
Haikou -0.50% -5.60% -1.70%
Qinhuangdao -0.70% -5.60% 8.90%
Jinhua -0.40% -5.60% -1.50%
Chengdu -0.30% -5.50% 7.70%
Jiujiang -1.00% -5.50% 4.00%
Xiangyang -0.30% -5.50% 9.10%
Nanchang 0.00% -5.40% 11.90%
Guangzhou 0.00% -5.40% 22.00%
Beihai -0.80% -5.40% 6.30%
Yichang -0.20% -5.30% 9.20%
Luoyang -0.60% -5.20% 10.60%
Nanning -0.30% -5.10% 6.80%
Wuxi -0.60% -4.90% 2.10%
Pingdingshan -0.60% -4.90% 9.40%
Sanya -0.50% -4.90% 1.50%
Jilin -0.40% -4.80% 9.80%
Taiyuan -0.30% -4.70% 10.20%
Harbin -0.60% -4.70% 9.10%
Jinan -0.30% -4.70% 8.20%
Kunming -0.20% -4.60% 9.10%
Xuzhou -0.40% -4.60% 8.20%
Wuhan -0.10% -4.50% 11.10%
Urumqi -0.40% -4.50% 18.60%
Changde -0.80% -4.50% 7.80%
Changchun -0.20% -4.40% 8.70%
Xi'an -0.50% -4.30% 11.10%
Shanghai 0.00% -4.20% 15.80%
Tangshan -0.70% -4.10% -0.60%
Zunyi -0.80% -4.10% 8.90%
Shijiazhuang -0.10% -3.90% 15.70%
Xining -0.80% -3.80% 16.70%
Yinchuan -0.30% -3.70% 10.50%
Dali -0.40% -3.70% 3.30%
Tianjin -0.20% -3.60% 8.30%
Wenzhou -0.60% -3.60% -23.00%
Jining -0.20% -3.60% 9.50%
Lanzhou -0.40% -3.50% 12.00%
Beijing -0.10% -3.20% 17.60%
Guiyang -0.30% -3.20% 10.10%
Mudanjiang -0.40% -3.10% 9.80%
Yueyang -0.20% -2.70% 11.30%
Nanjing 0.00% -2.40% 10.50%
Hefei -0.20% -2.40% 10.70%
Shenzhen 0.30% -1.30% 23.90%
Zhengzhou -0.30% -0.70% 19.90%
Xiamen -0.10% 0.80% 26.20%

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