2015-04-21

Immigration Restriction A Winner In 2016

After all but ignoring the issue in previous election cycles, immigration restrictions will be an issue in the 2016 election.

Scott Walker Tacks Far Right On Immigration
"In terms of legal immigration, how we need to approach that going forward is saying -- the next president and the next Congress need to make decisions about a legal immigration system that’s based on, first and foremost, on protecting American workers and American wages. Because the more I’ve talked to folks, I’ve talked to [Alabama Sen. Jeff] Sessions and others out there -- but it is a fundamentally lost issue by many in elected positions today -- is what is this doing for American workers looking for jobs, what is this doing to wages. And we need to have that be at the forefront of our discussion going forward," Walker said in an interview with Glenn Beck, according to Breitbart News.

Sessions, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s immigration panel, has been one of the biggest opponents of President Barack Obama's immigration policies and frequently criticizes the administration over its so-called "amnesty" for undocumented immigrants. In a Washington Post op-ed on Friday, he argued that it was time to curb immigration flows into the country "so that wages can rise, welfare rolls can shrink and the forces of assimilation can knit us all more closely together."
Immigration restriction polls about 60-70% support when questions aren't asked in a biased way. This is easy low hanging fruit for any candidate who is willing to suffer the storm created by leftist media outlets, as the evidence from Europe makes clear.

The one issue that unites the upstart parties across Europe, who range from left to right on economic issues, is anti-immigration: Sweden Democrats, Norway's Progress Party, France's National Front, UK's UKIP, Alternative for Germany, Danish People's Party, Austria's Freedom Party, Holland's Party for Freedom, Italy's Northern League and the Finns Party are a few of the parties that have either surprised with their rapid growth or shocked with surprise electoral wins. Australia has also swung right on illegal immigration: Australian government targets asylum seekers with graphic campaign

From the socionomic view, peak support for immigration would have been around the year 2000, when social mood peaked. All over the world, political parties have shifted on the issue as social mood declined, moving towards more centrist policies. In the U.S., policy has remained extreme even for peak mood, with politicians of both parties supporting cheaper foreign workers (both high and low skill), refusal to do basic policing on the border, paying to fly illegal immigrants from foreign countries so they don't have to walk (and also paying to fly other people back on nearly empty planes, bureaucracy for the win).

If Walker or any candidate runs on an anti-immigration platform, they will endure non-stop attacks in the media, but they are likely to pick up several points in the general election. Given the two parties both have about 45% support heading into the voting, that extra few points will be enough to win the election.

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