2015-07-10

Greece Gets Deal Rejected By Voters

MacroBusiness: Tsipras has just destroyed Greece

A long post listing the details of the deal and concludes with:
This is basically the same proposal as that was just rejected by the Greek people in the referendum. There are some headlines floating around about proposed debt restructuring as well but I can’t find them.

This makes absolutely no sense. The Tsipras Government has just:

renegotiated itself into the same position it was in two months ago;
set massively false expectations with the Greek public;
destroyed the Greek banking system, and
destroyed what was left of Greek political capital in EU.
If this deal gets through the Greek Parliament, and it could given everyone other than the ruling party and Golden Dawn are in favour of austerity, then Greece has just destroyed itself to no purpose.

Markets are drawing comfort from the roll over but how Tsipras can return home without being lynched by a mob is beyond me. And that raises the prospect of any deal being held immediately hostage to violence.
It looks like the parliament will approve the deal based on the number of representatives for each party. I can see the vote going down if the public reacts strongly, but will their desire to stay in the euro outweigh their desire for control over the economy? Assuming it goes through, the deal doesn't appear to solve anything. More debt and more austerity, same as before only more so and Greece can't do austerity like a Northern European country (or Slovakia) because the people won't accept it. Two or three years from now, or sooner, there will be renewed anger and a new election. Only two credible alternatives remain for voters who oppose austerity: the hardline Syriza members and Golden Dawn. Prepare for the new Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.

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