40 Charts to Understand China's Economy

This article runs through 40 charts to show where the Chinese economy is at, from Mingyuan Real Estate. Mostly real estate charts, but a few macro charts tossed in. Text is Google translated.

Original: 40张图看懂,2015年上半年总结及下半年展望
The first half is the first warm not warm, market confidence rebounded significantly, but demand started to slow down in July; the second half is to deepen differentiation, including to take, investment, prices and other increased differentiation.
Source: LaSalle Bank, this article has been reprinted right
The first half of 2015, under the steady housing consumption-oriented policy blowing warm air frequency superimposed on the capital market wealth effect, line led to boost the overall sales situation warming.
From the beginning of May, the national real estate sales index ended negative growth, market confidence began to rise from the bottom. But pick up momentum weak July index of customers come and demand slowdown trend.
Into the second half, the deepening of the market structure differentiation into the mainstream. Take, investment, prices and other differentiation between different cities gradually increased, Ocean Flame; Rate between different regions in the same city are differentiated; the main consumer groups are changing with the passage of age. Industry is gradually return to the market-led, opened the prelude to merger integration.
[First warm not warm: the first half of the real estate market summary]
█ continued economic weakness, downward pressure
█ CPI and PPI are still low for the poor demand situation
CPI, PPI running low, mean lower overall inflationary pressures; since June, stock market volatility, fluctuations in asset prices, downward pressure on inflation, monetary easing in the second half of a larger space.
█ limited risk-free rate decline, is not conducive to the real economy
In the short term, China is difficult to significantly decrease the risk-free interest rate; at the same time because of inflation and weaker economic growth running low, resulting in risk-free real interest rates, corporate financing costs remain high.
█ weak investment, failed to escort steady growth
Investment growth has dropped to the lowest since 2001, from January to July, total investment in fixed assets continued to decline year on year growth of 11.2%.
Real estate investment in fixed assets accounted for one-fifth of this year's policy effect is mainly reflected in the sales level, but did not bring about the investment promotion.
█ slowdown in domestic demand, consumption continued weakness
█ the overall global economy is poor, import and export decline
● export side, only to achieve an increase of nearly 50 percent in February, almost all negative growth in the rest of the month;
● import side, continued negative growth
█ stronger dollar, the flow of capital or impact of emerging economies
█ Europe, the Japanese economy has not yet out of the woods
█ overall easing policy side, forward to promote the development of the industry
We took in 2009 and 2015 real estate easing to make a comparison, we can come to this conclusion:
█ end of the national housing sales area of ​​negative growth, an increase of 6.9%
January to July, the national turnover of 530 million square meters of commercial housing, an increase of 6.9%; average selling price of 6581 yuan, an increase of 9.2%.
█ national real estate sales increase of 13.4%
The national real estate turnover from May this year from negative growth to positive growth, rose 3.1%; the end of July, the national real estate transactions 4.1 trillion yuan, up 13.4 percent, the growth rate further recovery.
No amount █ door 3 upward trend continued in May, June-July decline
From the leading index "LaSalle Bank customers come amount" point of view, in April improved in May of high stage, from June to July began to fall.
LaSalle Bank █ subscription data show that in July the decline in demand
█ volume shrinking cities land prices go

█ real estate development and investment growth, new construction continued to decline
█ the total inventory is still rising, increasing pressure to melt
By the end of July, the national real estate sale area is still rising, reaching 663 million square meters.
█ most affluent cities of inventory to a period over 12 months
█ housing prices and to the value of the inventory cycle was at a high level
█ Housing prices continued to shrink, to get to scale dropped
January to July 2015, housing prices land acquisition area of ​​downward continuation of last year, fell further.
Ministry of Finance released data show that China's land transfer revenue in 2014 of the first, second and third quarters, respectively, an increase of 40%, 14.2%, 0.5%, down 21.6% in the fourth quarter; the first half of 2015 continued sharp decline 38.3%.
█ housing prices adjust the layout, focus resources to frontline
We track the 16 benchmark housing prices over the years to get to the amount of urban distribution shows that since 2014, housing prices in the second-tier contract, especially to focus on the trend line on the rise.
[Differentiation deepen: the second half of Real Estate Prospect]
A differentiation: premium differentiation trend, most three or four lines in the doldrums
Differentiation II: commercial property demand is still weak
Relative to domestic consumption, affected by the decline in the real economy, most of the city's commercial office demand is still not optimistic, especially non-core city, lots of non-core products.
Which, from January to July, the national commercial housing, commercial, office sales year on year increase of 16.8% - 1.9%, 2.1%.
And compared to the residential, commercial property higher regional concentration of active trading.
Mature market data show that the global TOP10 urban commercial real estate transactions accounted for 50% of the total transaction size.

Differentiation three: real estate investment severe differentiation, Northeast plummeted
Differentiation four: residential sales rose line, second line was up, three-wire Pudie
Among them, the share of sales accounted for first-tier cities increased dramatically, we can see from the figure below:
Differentiation five: Rate frontline led, second microliters, three-wire sustain losses
Among them, the price change in the second and third tier cities have appeared.
The urban housing in different regions also continue to divide itself.
Guangzhou, for example, since 2015, the Guangzhou city's new commercial housing price compared to the same period of little change last year, but the central region and the peripheral region Change differentiation widening.
Six differentiation: price earnings ratio to further increase the gap
The car plate cities, from LaSalle Bank subscription data, aged 20-35 years old customers purchase threshold.
North deep just customers buy the first set of housing, food or drink to 20 years, much higher than other cities.
Differentiation Seven: luxury-tier cities heavy volume, turnover soared
In the first half of this year, the stock market soared, the wealth effect of major shareholders and other capital market surge in demand for luxury line, boosting demand and just needs to improve outbreak.
The second half, capital markets Earthquake superimposed exchange rate changes, affecting the luxury market, the demand for these products is a high probability event the first to decline.
And the first-tier cities car plate prices also rose significantly. In the first half of this year, the first-line non-core area undercarriage Rate with inflation, rose more fierce in the region in the second half or will face a callback.
Eight differentiation: differentiation buyers groups, 80 are the backbone, the proportion drops 90
1, 2014 after the 26-35 years old (born after 80 people) buyers accounted for the highest, amounting to 46%; 25 years of age (born after 90 population) share declined to 13%.
2, from the age structure of the population, the future of the main post-85;
3, 2015 after 30 years of age just need the crowd began to decrease;
Ten years later, a second wave of baby boomers into the 50-65 year-old population, consumer spending pension, health care and tourism dominated decline in consumer demand in real estate.Meanwhile, the 90 (190 million) compared to 80 after birth population (240 million) decreased by 20%, which means 5 - just to be significantly decreased after 10 years.
4, to improve the type of demand will continue for decades;
The real estate market growth since 2003, benefiting from the second wave, third wave of baby boomers demand brought about.
Differentiation Nine: residential investment value differentiation, increased proportion of first-tier investors
National investors accounted for the overall market is still historically low.
Differentiation ten: Nearly half of housing prices year on year growth underperformed
Judging from the housing business performance, the majority of housing prices in the buildup volume, but also further increase the differentiation.
1, the market concentration accelerated promotion
TOP5, TOP10 housing prices in the market share of the rapid increases in 2014, 2015, currently TOP5, TOP10 market share was 13%, 19%; five years ago, the proportion of 7% and 10%.
2, the gap between housing prices also increased funding ends
3. Since 2014, merger integration between housing prices accelerate
Source: LaSalle Bank. More Good text recommended, add the deputy editor of the individual micro-channel kiwi52012 exchange.
Free Internet + high level listening live video lessons, every Wednesday night about 8:00. Wednesday evening 7:00 playback on a "real estate finance N Internet games are played." Details sweep into the group understood as a two-dimensional code.

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