Crude Soars, EM Currencies Rally: 1998, 2011, 2001, 2008 or All Clear?

Over at Solar Cycles, a case for 2001 and sort of 2008 after comparing with 1998 and 2011.
Short Biotech – I see the mania as burst, the parabolic broken and the second chance done. Therefore, I expect hard and fast falls to resume here promptly.

Short R2K – the R2K reached its highest ever valuation at this peak and history suggests small caps should retrace their full gains under a bear.

Short Dow – more likely to hold up than the others but a lower high or sideways range trade are the most bullish outcomes that I can conceive.

Long Gold – has been unnervingly weak but I continue to believe it must be the beneficiary once stocks are more clearly cemented in a bear.

Long gold miners – new position as indicators depict washed out and positive divergence. A position on which I will rigidly use stops, however, due to uncertainty as to how this asset performs if stocks break lower.
Click through for the charts.

ZeroHedge posted WTI Crude Tops $50, Energy Stocks Soar To Biggest Week Since 2008 (But Credit Ain't Buying It). When in doubt, go with the bond market.

Over at the Slope, Tim Knight gives some targets for bears to throw in the towel, at least in the short-term: Twenty-Twenty Hindsight
The Dow Industrials has a huge top between 17,100 and 18,400, and the 1700 point rise in the Dow (!!!) since the August crash puts us just beneath that big top.

The S&P tells a similar story, but as with most indexes, there may still be a little room left to go higher before things really truly worrisome for the bears. 2020 (hence the post’s title) is an important level of resistance. If that is crossed, I’d say that approximately 2045 becomes key.
Click through for the charts.

Over at Slope, there are a lot of topping patterns. The spike in oil is also steep, but still leaves oil below the $60 level it hit in May and held for two months. Many oil stocks remain "toppy" and have risen to points that have bears salivating. They may quickly dump those positions if the charts fail, but the rally to this point hasn't busted the bearish outlook. The main line in the sand for me is the emerging market ETF, EEM. It fell slightly below the support line before the very sharp bounce this week. Were it to break that support line, I think 1997/98 is the template. Nothing yet screams bullish and the bounce has all the hallmarks of a bear market rally. A bull rally is not impossible in the face of seemingly negative fundamentals. Largest counterpoint for me: Chinese H-shares have gone nowhere for nearly a decade. Nevertheless, I'm quite firm in my belief that the market is way too optimistic about China. The IMF is now "predicting" China's slowdown to 6% GDP growth.
Here's a high-yield corporate bond ETF, HYG, showing how the recent rally, while strong, has not broken the larger downtrend.
Here's the Chinese Enterprises Index:

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