2015-10-14

Gold Begins To Rise on Chinese Deflation

As expected, the CPI eased as pork and vegetable prices stabilized. Pile on the 猪肉白菜饺子 once more.
Source: 2015年9月份居民消费价格同比上涨1.6%

The NBS directly addressed the pork issue in its report: 国家统计局城市司高级统计师余秋梅解读2015年9月份CPI、PPI数据. The chart shows prices for two different types of pork.

More consumer deflation is coming: cabbage prices are down 6.8% in the first 10 days of October. Agricultural producer prices are also way down, with corn falling 7.6%.

Producer deflation eased on a month-to-month basis, but the year-on-year figure was unchanged from August. Source: 2015年9月份工业生产者出厂价格同比下降5.9%

As for gold, this worm may have turned. Gold looks ready to rally more than 5% here in USD. If there's additional USD strength, this could be a double-digit move in some EM and resource exporter currencies.

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