2015-11-05

Remember the Nasdaq Bull Market of October 2000?

WSJ: China Enters Bull Market
China entered a bull market Thursday, a surprising milestone after a volatile summer wiped out trillions in value from mainland equities and rattled global markets.

The Shanghai Composite Index has gained 20.3% since Aug. 26, the bottom of the summer selloff. A bull market is defined as a rise of 20% from a recent low.
On May 23, 2000, the Nasdaq bottomed at 3164.55 and went on to reach 4274.67 on July 17, 2000 a gain of 35%. The ChiNext is up about 43% from its bottom on September 15.

The gain in the Shanghai Composite doesn't even qualify as a shallow Fibonacci retracement yet:
The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. From the Fibonacci section above, it is clear that 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% stem from ratios found within the Fibonacci sequence. The 50% retracement is not based on a Fibonacci number. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.

Based on depth, we can consider a 23.6% retracement to be relatively shallow. Such retracements would be appropriate for flags or short pullbacks. Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be considered moderate. Even though deeper, the 61.8% retracement can be referred to as the golden retracement. It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.

No comments:

Post a Comment