2015-12-18

Housing Stick Save? November New Home Prices Tick Up

It looked as if the rally was over in October, but prices ticked up 0.19% in November, almost matching the 0.20% increase in September. The first-tier plus Xiamen are still dominating the rise in prices. The five combined for 55% of the national price increase. Shenzhen was still the price increase leader, but the city only accounted for 22% of the total national increase. In October, these five cities delivered the entirety of the national price gain. However: the worst price decline was Jinzhou, down only 0.4% in November and Sanya new home prices slid 0.3%. Every other city showing a price decline was down either 0.1% or 0.2%. If I was making policy off this report I wouldn't be confidence of the numbers holding, but in isolation, the report is worthy of a wait-and-see attitude. With real estate investment imploding in various provinces though, China's central government is cooking up various ways to rescue the housing market in lower-tier cities.

Year over year, prices are down 0.4%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 8.8%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
April: 47 cities saw declines in price mom, 5 cities were flat, 18 were up.
May: 41 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 20 were up.
June: 34 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 27 were up.
July: 39 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 31 were up.
August: 26 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 35 were up.
September: 21 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 39 were up.
October: 33 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 27 were up.
November: 27 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 33 were up.

Existing home prices were up nearly the same amount as new home prices last month, rising 0.20%. The city up/down breakdown was the same as with new home prices. The first-tier plus Xiamen accounted for 22% of the increase in existing homes nationally.

Source: 2015年11月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

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