China manufacturing PMI size breakdown.... pic.twitter.com/eQHzbifFnq— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) December 1, 2015
三国外长纽约会晤议定严厉措施应对朝核危机 数小时后朝鲜发射导弹 - 【博闻社】美国国务卿蒂勒森、日本外务大臣岸田文雄和韩国外交部长官尹炳世28日在美国纽约联合国总部举行韩美日外长 […]...
What matters is the associated growth in credit. If growth next year of 7% were achieved with 18% growth in credit, things would actually be getting worse, not better. On the other hand if China grew next year by 5%, with credit growing at “only” 8%, this would represent a significant improvement in China’s medium- and long-term growth prospects. This is something that a lot of economists seem to have real trouble in understanding. There is no “good” level of economic growth independent of the associated growth in credit.One point he makes is that Beijing has credibility in its ability to prevent a debt crisis:
Ultimately, and to repeat Conclusion 5 above, Beijing must continuously choose between a rising debt burden, rising unemployment, or rising transfers of wealth from the state sector. All of its policy options boil down to one or more of these three. So far it has mostly chosen the first, but this can only go on until the country reaches debt capacity limits.
...that for those who believe (and I include myself in this group) that the structure of Chinese financial markets and Beijing’s high credibility give it protection from the risk of debt crisis...but he also notes that Beijing does not have the power to abolish the laws of economics:
In fact the real cost of excessive debt levels is what finance specialists call “financial distress” costs, and I have explained elsewhere how debt can become excessive. China is already experiencing financial distress costs and as debt rises, these costs will make it harder and harder for China to achieve target growth rates except at the expense of even more debt, so that rising debt automatically means lower growth than otherwise.The area where I see this eventually having an impact in on the area Beijing increasingly cannot control: the currency.
Ultimately, those forces will compel large banks to significantly automate their business. I predict that the number of branches and people employed in the financial services sector may decline by as much as 50% over the next 10 years, and even in a less harsh scenario I expect a decline of at least 20%.China has one of the world's most retrograde banking systems and at the same time, perhaps the most advanced Internet banking in the world.
"2015 Chinese household average asset growth of 20.2% compared with 2013, the largest increase in financial assets, up 59.4 percent." She said, results from the survey, household financial assets grew mainly from the growth in risk assets, especially equities and Finance product, compared with 2013, the stock rose 92.5 percent, while financial products is soaring to 198.5 percent. But Li Feng also pointed out that "this growth model is not sustainable, because the growth was mainly derived from the volatility of prices of financial assets and real estate."Real estate is almost 70% of household wealth:
"This reflects our home equity liquidity is very weak. This and all the people have a sense of tradition related to real estate, but also that everyone's income is not too high, there is no more money to configure highly liquid financial assets , there is the Chinese people, financial awareness is not enough. "Bong told reporters in Chengdu Commercial Daily, the Chinese people's debt levels are much lower than the United States, indicating that financial services be improved.While Chinese save a lot and buy homes, they don't do much more with their money. The stock market casino is a popular way to gamble, but most people aren't playing:
Meanwhile, Bong contrast to the US data, the Netherlands and the three countries of China, the United States and the Netherlands, family financial knowledge index were 75.3 and 78.8, while China is only 42The 217 million people in China's middle class have average wealth of $127,000, which give it the highest total wealth in the world, but per capita it lags behind the U.S. and Japan:
Center findings show that Chinese middle-income families to 217 million the number of the adult population, average wealth of $ 127,000...
Economy is still searching for a bottom, the credit risk from industry overcapacity is only just beginning to be released, there will be more and more enterprises defaulting, breach of contract will become as commonplace as the ratings downgrades. No domestic bond cross default clause, raised debt default within the next year may be the following two cases, one is creditors may initiate bankruptcy proceedings before maturity, and second, there are bonds due within the next year that will be difficult to pay back.Soem specific bonds are mentioned in the article. Some not at all surprising such as Baoding Tianwei, which has a bond due in April 2016.
In the first case, we screened out insolvent or net assets fell rapidly, will probably insolvent within a year, a total of seven issuers. In the second case, a large screened liquidity pressures issuers, mainly consider two aspects, one is the continuous emergence of large losses or a loss, the second is a low degree of coverage of the book fund short-term debt. Screening results, a total of 49 large and there are liquidity pressures bond issuer before maturity or sold back to the end of 2016, the corresponding bond has certain payment risks. (Author: Haitong Bond Jiang Chao, Zhou Xia, Zhu Zheng Xing, etc.)
A year after China's financial regulators squared up to the systemic perils of "shadow banking", the threat is shifting to a booming corporate bond market, and risky borrowers' debt is finding its way into products aimed at retail investors.
An opaque network of trust companies and non-bank lenders had grown their annual market to a hefty 2.9 trillion yuan ($450 billion) in loans before regulators stepped in, spooked by rising defaults on wealth-management products (WMPs) backed by such high-interest shadow lending.
The yuan fell toward a three-month low amid concern China will win a smaller weighting in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights than some analysts predict.Even the China Daily is posting negative views: Demand unlikely to boost yuan despite basket inclusion
While International Monetary Fund staff estimate a weighting of 14 to 16 percent, the market consensus is for 10 percent because of the currency’s limited usability, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd.
The International Monetary Fund's decision to include the yuan in the Special Drawing Rights basket will not directly increase the demand for yuan assets. Also, the implicit endorsement of the yuan as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the decisions of global asset managers. Indeed, China's market interventions this year in response to capital outflows and the bursting of the equity bubble provide strong reasons for them to steer well clear.Defaults continue to mount. Bloomberg: China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns
A Chinese fertilizer maker and a pig iron producer have flagged bond payment difficulties, adding to signs of stress in the nation’s corporate note market after at least six defaults this year.Jiangsu Re-Guarantee says they will fulfill their obligation if the firm indeed cannot pay its debts. Anytime a credit guarantee is involved a red flag should go up because if they cann't cover the guarantee, all the loans guaranteed by the firm could be called by banks. The Chinese headline says credit market pressure is as big as a mountain. 本周两家公司发出违约警报 债市压力山大
Jiangsu Lvling Runfa Chemical Co., based in the eastern city of Suqian, is asking its guarantor to repay 53.1 million yuan ($8.3 million) in bond principal and interest due Dec. 4, according to a statement posted on Chinamoney’s website. Sichuan Shengda Group Ltd., based in the southwestern province of Sichuan, is uncertain it can repay notes due in 2018 that holders can opt to sell back early on Dec. 5, it said in a statement on the same website Thursday.
...The guarantor of Jiangsu Lvling Runfa’s bond is Jiangsu Re-Guarantee Co.
China’s stocks tumbled the most since the depths of a $5 trillion plunge in August as some of the nation’s largest brokerages disclosed regulatory probes, industrial profits fell and two more companies said they’re struggling to repay bonds.
The Shanghai Composite Index sank 5.5 percent, with a gauge of volatility surging from the lowest level since March. Citic Securities Co. and Guosen Securities Co. plunged by the daily limit in Shanghai after saying they were under investigation for alleged rule violations. Haitong Securities Co., whose shares were suspended from trading, is also being probed. Industrial profits slid 4.6 percent last month, data showed Friday, compared with a 0.1 percent drop in September.
Price: October 70 City house prices continue weak rebound. Producer prices hit a new low last week.
Demand: Downstream real estate, household appliances weaker, passenger car picked up. Midstream steel, cement, chemicals weaken. Upstream coal is still weak, weak freight.
Inventory: Downstream real estate remains high, passenger cars, home appliances fair. Midstream steel worsened, cement deteriorated, chemicals fair. Upstream coal, nonferrous metals still high.
3.4 Risk 2.4: wholesale and retail, manufacturing industry is the hardest hitNo surprise at the lowest NPL industries, utilities:
Wholesale and retail industry, the main source of manufacturing or non-performing loans for 15 years and produced.
Among them, the wholesale and retail sectors most sensitive to the transfer of the money, the economy continues downward, industry revenue low boom exacerbated the difficulties of enterprises, increasing accounts receivable mean the weakening of the industries and enterprises solvency. For the purposes of the four major state line, wholesale and retail of non-performing loans ratio of about 7%, of which a maximum of about 7.82% Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China about 7.09% and 6.09% respectively. At the same time, the manufacturing sector is also a hit, CCB and ABC's non-performing loans in the industry rate of over 4%, which is high labor-intensive textile and clothing NPL ratio.
Transportation, storage and postal services, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry, as well as the lowest non-performing loan ratio in water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry, currently the average less than 0.5%, or derived from such industry has a stable cash flow. With the development of steady growth policies, such industry will continue to reduce risk.Numbers are worse in the Pearl River Delta: China Construction Bank's division there saw its small and medium enterprise NPL ratio break 2% at the end of June, and then climbed to 2.41% by the end of September. Not as bad as the recessionary Northeast though.
In addition, the Northeast region is still the focus area of non-performing loans of individual banks, such as China Construction Bank and China CITIC BankWeakness is in corporate debt which is rapidly deteriorating:
Bad corporate loans was significantly higher, and the deterioration of rapid growth.The conclusion of the report:
First, the company is higher than the non-performing loans of commercial banks overall non-performing loan rate of nearly 60BP, such as the Agricultural Bank report shows 15-year corporate NPL rate of 2.43%, while non-performing loans only point of the Agricultural Bank 1.83%. Construction Bank NPL ratio of corporate loans is also more than 2%, while the Construction Bank non-performing loans is only 1.42%. Secondly, the rate of deterioration in bad corporate loans quickly, with state-owned banks, for example, the rate of about six months between the upstream reach 35-40BP.
NPL ratio of personal loans is more stable.
We expect that the real NPL ratio in 2016 will accelerate upward, need to guard against credit risk of individual regions and individual sectors outbreak.
"Data from January to September has shown, the national housing new construction area, completion of the area, land acquisition area and land transaction price of four typical indicators for the first time negative growth, which is unprecedented." Wang Zhong, director of Real Estate Research Center, Fuzhou University, said to October while four indicators are still showing negative growth. High inventory, investment fall is currently China's largest property market fundamentals.This is the catch-22 for China. To reduce inventory, investment must fall, but GDP relies on the real estate industry.
Unsold existing homes area after it is completed, not including a large number of the construction and did not start the potential stock not completed. In addition, there is a small property room around the country, as well as some not included in the statistical coverage of residential projects, as well as some not even rule should be reported unreported stocks. "Once recognized, Chinese property stocks may be doubled." Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research vice president Yang Hongxu said.Third and fourth-tier cities remain the trouble spot, particularly the high-end:
"The current real estate market oversupply is structural overcapacity." CRIC Research Center analyst Huang Bin said. Reporters also found that in many interviews, while the overall stock continued to rise, but in the city, region, size, price, etc., but there are different degrees of differentiation: third- and fourth-tier cities, a number of central and west cities, high priced large apartments do not sell, inventory remains high.Investment assets have inverted demand curves: as the price rises, so does demand. Due to Chinese housing being heavily driven by investment, falling prices leads to less demand:
A residential suburb of Fuzhou Lianjiang County residents told reporters that the district less than a third in the evening light. From 2011 opening for the first time sold more than 5000 yuan per square meter, and now down to 4000 yuan, few people want it. It's a microcosm of many four-tier cities in China.Sales have risen in 2015, but it failed to dent inventory in most cities:
There is a big differentiation between Midwest City and the eastern coastal cities. National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to October, the eastern part of real estate sales 3.9204 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.7%, the central region of real estate sales 1.2946 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5%, the western region real estate sales 1.2639 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%.
Asked about the change, Mrs. Szydlo said she was happy with Poland remaining inside the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, but national matters called for the national flag.Social mood is still relatively positive...though not in Poland.
In future government press briefings “will be held only with the most beautiful red and white Polish flags”, said Mrs. Szydlo.
The move has been called a ‘snub’ by Britain’s Financial Times and even prompted former Belgian prime minister and senior European Union parliamentarian Guy Verhofstadt to tweet “So you do not wish EU flags, but still want EU money?”.
I predict, after the completion of the yuan into the [SDR] basket, the United States will raise interest rates in December and the dollar will continue to rise, and the yuan will be hard pressed to continue to withstand the depreciation pressure. From the beginning of December, the RMB should start a devaluation. Of course, the powerful Chinese central bank is likely to intervene or entice big banks to sell dollars and buy its RMB in exchange rate intervention. But this is not a permanent solution, by adding RMB to the SDR, the government has promised not to interfere with currency movements. In short, from the end of the year a comparatively large RMB devaluation should be expected. Investors should pay close attention to US interest rates, the trend of the US dollar and the renminbi, to prevent exchange rate losses.
China's aluminum and nickel producers have asked Beijing to buy up surplus metal, sources said, the first coordinated effort since 2009 to revive prices suffering their worst rout since the global financial crisis.
The state-controlled metals industry body, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, proposed on Monday that the government scoop up aluminum, nickel and minor metals including cobalt and indium, an official at the association and two industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The drop in interest rates and RRR, fiscal stimulus, accelerating monetary growth along with other factors, have repeatedly raised the market expectations for a better economy, but soon after these hopeful expectations come falling investment, industrial production, inflation and other indicators, smashing those hopes to pieces.December could bring a major devaluation in the yuan:
Both have made RMB devaluation pressures continue to grow after the November vote SDR, IMF has currency stability requirements, but also need to have a more market-oriented exchange rate, and this October the US Treasury Department report explicitly gave these requirements. Therefore, December is the key month for the RMB exchange rate choices. Our advice: Instead of waiting, it is better to act decisively. If you wait until next year, the rate of decline in forex reserves will accelerate again.The problem facing China is that intervention may now be the best course of action, followed by a major liberalization in the currency. Devalue beyond the target and let the market bid the yuan back up to stabilize the market. If instead the market is tasked with depreciating the yuan, the overshoot could be much greater and, by taking far longer to complete the job, will trigger far more secondary and tertiary effects as expectations shift. A quick one-off move short-cuts the market and prevents expectations from forming.
At the extreme, he pointed out, much of the short-term paper issued in China was, in the eyes of investors, a lot like PBoC bills. They were liquid, short-term money substitutes with little to no credit risk. Did it make sense, he wondered, to think of China as an economy with potentially thousands of mini-central banks, all issuing nearmoney instruments, and if so, how might we model the monetary and economic impact?Is this substantially different from the situation in the U.S. with FDIC insured bank deposits and implicit backing of Fannie and Freddie, or today, the explicit/implicit backing of student loan debt?
If this revaluation occurred very quickly and forcefully, and if it happened in such a way that investors found it difficult to distinguish between borrowers that might continue to be covered by moral hazard and those that weren’t, they might dump debt as rapidly as possible in favor of credible money, except for debt issued by borrowers whose solvency and liquidity is fully credible (which might only be the PBoC).Except the PBoC isn't fully solvent, liquid or credible. Only the Federal Reserve is fully solvent, liquid and credible because only the Federal Reserve prints the reserve currency, to which the PBoC has pegged the value of its circulating medium.
1. buy property for affordable housing. this policy is simplest, has the smallest side effects and can be tailored for each cityNot sure how the last one would work because it would lead to lower local government revenues as well as reduce local GDP. Also, considering many of the worst cases aren't seeing much in the way of land sales, if any. Finally, it's unclear how easing buying restrictions and second-home rules will play out. It will help the market bottom and rebound sooner, but if psychology has turned, easing buying restrictions has little effect because the demand is gone.
2. Historically, the most effective policies are often derived from credit policy. Remove than the total level of interest rates, the most important thing is to adjust the differential housing credit policy. Future restrictions on the purchase of second homes may be further liberalized.
3. reduce the minimum down payment. But still continue to adjust the minimum down payment ratio is more cautious, after all, if the down payment ratio down too much, the banking system will bring potential risks, stimulus effect is limited.
4. the overall tax burden of second-hand housing transactions is still relatively high, the real estate transaction taxes and fees can be reduced.
5. control of land supply, particularly to control three or four lines of urban land supply is a necessary means to resolve inventory issues.
And there you have it. It's either stop it with the whole flooding an oversupplied market strategy, or let the peg fall before SAMA runs dry. Bear in mind that it's not just falling crude, the peg, and generous subsidies that are weighing on the Saudis. There's also the war in Yemen and the prospect of a stepped up role in Syria.
Bank of Jinzhou Co Ltd launched an up to $943 million Hong Kong IPO on Monday to bolster its balance sheet after the Chinese lender halved its exposure to Hanergy Group, the parent of troubled solar equipment maker Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Ltd.
The desire for more development in the two areas runs counter to official efforts to ease overcrowding, smog and traffic congestion problems that have worsened in Beijing in recent years, Lu said.
"The change will lead to more industry and people living there, which would be contradictory to the city's population control policies," he said. "It might also cause problems related to a shortage of infrastructure facilities and public services in the capital to worsen."
Which provides that the abolition of real estate purchase restrictions. Including the cancellation of the purchase of commodity housing copy number, residence, age and other restrictions; abolish commodity housing sales (pre) sale price reporting system; the lifting of restrictions on foreign institutions and individuals to purchase of commodity housing in the region.
The purchase of the first set of ordinary commercial housing households, financial institutions lending minimum down payment of 30% the proportion of funds, the interest rate limit is 0.7 times the benchmark rate.Shanxi is the fourth province to cancel buying restrictions. Gansu, Sichuan and Anhui are the other three.
In addition, the provisions approved by the housing provident fund management committee, may apply in accordance with relevant regulations issued by the state housing fund individual housing loan-backed securities and housing fund can be used to purchase local government bonds, policy financial bonds, housing fund individual housing loan-backed securities high credit rating of fixed income products.
Liang responds that one reason debt is so high is that so much money is being put, by the government and others, in bank deposits: The only way to get the trapped money out is to borrow. “The savings rate is crazy,” she says in a phone interview. “It’s not natural.”Using public housing funds to buy local government bonds is exactly the wrong way to get the money out.
Could a banking crisis erupt in China? The commonly accepted answer among western analysts is no, for the simple reason that China has huge State owned banks that dominate the country’s banking industry. But dig a little deeper and a different picture emerges.
It turns out that within China’s smaller cities, the market share of the big banks fades away. Instead, local banks take over.
...In the city of Jinzhou, population 810,000, the state bank share drops by more than half to 19.4 per cent. Most of the slack is taken up by just one bank, the Bank of Jinzhou, with 62.6 per cent of assets.
Bank of Qingdao Co plans to launch its $600m listing on November 20 via joint sponsors Citic CLSA Securities and Goldman Sachs, alongside a syndicate of some 10 banks, according to sources close to the company. Pre-marketing kicked off earlier in the week.A loan to Hanergy kept the firm's listing delayed: Hanergy wait over for Jinzhou in IPO
It is not the only one seeking fresh equity. Bank of Jinzhou Co commenced investor education on November 17 for its $600m float, while Bank of Zhengzhou, which is yet to gain approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is eyeing a $700 IPO before the year is out. Meanwhile, Bank of Tianjin is seeking a float next year.
The commercial bank, based in northeastern Liaoning province, missed its original listing plan in June, as authorities questioned an eight billion yuan (HK$9.72 billion) credit line it granted to the parent of scandal-hit solar firm Hanergy Thin Film Power (0566).The company's application proof is here: Application Proof, PHIP and Related Materials, Bank of Jinzhou Co., Ltd.
The bank will kick off a roadshow next Wednesday and debut December 7.
A “negative list” names areas and sectors in which foreign investment is barred. Those not listed are fully accessible. Investors in these unlisted areas can obtain pre-entry national treatment (PENT), meaning that they will be accorded the same status and privileges of a domestic company before entering China.
The negative list method was first adopted in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone after it opened in 2013. Free trade zones were subsequently launched in Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian, and they too adopted negative lists.
Xu Shanchang, director of economic system reform at the National Development and Reform Commission, said on Friday the practice will be expanded from the coastal regions to inland areas.
Beijing is set to “substantially cut back” restrictions on foreign investment to enter the Chinese market and build an economy with an even higher level of openness, President Xi Jinping said in a regional business gathering on Wednesday, Nov. 18, amid global concerns over China’s slowing growth.
At the start of this year most analysts were still scratching their heads as to what was happening in China, the driver of global copper demand growth.This is a thinly traded ETF, but I've held it for the past two or three years waiting for this. The only that surprises is how low the volume has remained despite the good returns. The 2008 peak was above $80.
Chinese hedge funds, it seems, had already made up their mind that whatever was around the corner wasn't going to be good, and they voted with their wallets.
Should we be worried that they are evidently doing so again? Particularly since, this time around, it's not just copper that is being singled out for the bear treatment. Shanghai open interest has spiked in both zinc and, unusually, aluminum.
The case brought the total for underground banking and money-laundering activities to 800 billion yuan since April, the newspaper said.One thing to keep in mind: the outflows represent real demand for foreign currency, assets and/or investments. Closing underground banks does nothing to deal with this demand.
State-owned Yunnan Coal Chemical Industry Group Co. and its businesses had 1.31 billion yuan ($205.6 million) of overdue loans as of Oct. 30 due to rising borrowings and a cash shortageSina: 云南煤化工13亿债务违约 多家银行“躺枪”
There are plenty of possible reasons why liquidity might be evaporating. For one thing, there has been a huge increase in the amount of bond trading being conducted electronically and this method of dealing is now responsible for about half of all turnover in the US. This has attracted the attention of high-frequency firms who help provide liquidity and lower transaction costs but only really for small trades, creating the illusion of liquidity, which, like a mirage, disappears when you reach for it.If liquidity is disappearing amid massive central bank intervention, perhaps the economic models are wrong?
One of the upshots is that it is now much more expensive for banks to hold securities on their own books and therefore provide liquidity in the market. Deutsche Bank recently noted that the amount of outstanding corporate bonds has doubled since 2001 but dealer inventories of these securities have fallen 90pc over the same period.Risk has been taken off the bank balance sheets because regulators (and politicians, mainstream economists, etc.) believe the financial crisis was solely at the firm level. Remove the risk from the banks and the banking system appears sound. If the risk is in the entire financial system, then it can only be shifted, not eliminated. If the risk is the financial system itself, only major reform stands a chance at preventing a crisis.
Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low.Related: SMEs Wonder Not How to Live, But How To Die As Borrowing Costs Spike
The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance arranged to cover interest payments will probably rise 5 percent this year to a record 7.6 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion), according to Beijing-based Hua Chuang Securities Co., whose lead fixed-income analyst was top-ranked by China’s New Fortune magazine in 2012 and 2013.
The move, which will come into effect on Friday, will cut the overnight and seven-day rates it gives to Chinese lenders by 2.75 percent and 3.25 percent respectively.
The railways carried 280 million tons of cargo in October, down 16.3 percent year-on-year, compared with a fall of 15.6 percent in September and 15.3 percent in August, according to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
In the first 10 months of 2015, rail freight slipped 11.9 percent from a year earlier to 2.8 billion tons, a sharper decline than the 11.4-percent decrease for the first nine months, the NDRC said.
Caixin: No clear definition of “structural reform on the supply side” has appeared yet. What is its core idea?Supply side reforms are the pragmatic, common sense and simple approach to economic reform. Remove barriers and let the market sort out the allocation of labor and capital. This is what China is supposed to have been doing the past few years, but it's still not off the ground yet.
Xu Lin: I think the core idea is to reduce transaction costs created by institutional arrangements. Businesses are paying quite high costs in transactions, taxation, financing and social security. High transaction costs in China are mainly created by institutional hurdles. Reforming the supply side will reduce costs and make it easier for enterprises to do business. It will encourage business innovation, boost quality and efficiency of the supply system, and improve the supply structure. Eventually, supply side reform will lead to higher productivity of the economy and improve enterprises’ competitiveness.
Does the idea mean China will reduce its reliance on investment, consumption and exports for growth, as well as fiscal and monetary stimulus policies?
There has been no change on official expressions regarding monetary and fiscal policies. And no one has denied the role of the troika of economic growth, namely investment, consumption and exports. The fifth plenum of the Communist Party’s 18th Central Committee again mentioned the role of the three. So emphasizing the supply side doesn’t mean giving up the consumption side.
For the 13th five-year period, from 2016 to 2020, investment, consumption and exports will continue their functions. But more attention will be paid to the effects of investment, while people’s consumption will upgrade through innovation on the supply side. Competitiveness will be more important for export goods. For the next five years, the room for growth driven by traditional forces will be extended through reforms to the supply side.
...What is the theoretical foundation for supply side reform? How do we create demand through it?
Supply-side economics emphasizes deregulation on the supply side and cutting taxes. It was adopted in Western countries by leaders such as Margaret Thatcher, who pushed forward privatization in Britain. In China, most experts are talking about new supply-side economics that include some Chinese features. China started to expand domestic consumption in 1998 as a long-term strategy of the central government. There is no new theoretical framework. People will support reform from the supply side when they realize that the traditional way of expanding consumption will have a negative impact on the economy in the long run.
"I don’t know why the PBOC is so obsessed with the stability of the renminbi exchange rate," said Yu, who was an adviser to the monetary authority from 2004 to 2006 and is now a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “A flexible exchange rate will give greater impetus to China’s economic readjustment and growth paradigm shift."China's renminbi has to fall for the same reason a ball thrown in the air needs to fall. If the U.S. dollar falls, the yuan can maintain a semi-peg with the greenback, but if the dollar is about to break out, the yuan must depreciate versus the dollar. The SDR push is a political achievement and for China's internal politics it will be a significant achievement that may push forward reforms, but by itself, it is not a meaningful change for the currency.
...The significance of the SDR inclusion may have been exaggerated, Yu said.
"The inclusion is symbolic, though it should be regarded as a good thing," he said. "It will not have any significant impact on anything and it will change nothing unless the inclusion is a step toward more reforms of the international monetary system."
This critical point in time, if we do not reform strategy and commit the wrong direction, I believe that China's transformation is a high probability event. We can see the success of these transition economies, Japan, South Korea, China Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China are in our vicinity.
In the future, how you stimulate the real estate when this era is over. We can see that from 2014, the real estate investment from the previous 20% growth is now down to zero growth. Now we must study what are the characteristics of the real estate cycle after the population inflection point. I asked you a question, people continue to migrate to the big cities? Or return to small towns? Yes, migration to large cities and towns.
We did a study of more than 10 economies, this picture tells us that after the end of the demographic dividend, people continue to migrate to the big cities. Whether it is the United States, Japan and other economies are the same. Young, talented person net worth, the natural alternative to the big cities which, because only the big cities can give young people achieve the dream stage, only large cities that net wealth available to provide quality public resources.
So, people continue to go among the big cities. So, we can see that when people continue to migrate to the big cities, when first tier cities have no land, prices rise. No sales in third- and fourth-tier cities, land and inventories high.
Last year, I did a real estate prediction for China over the next 10 years, housing prices will double in the first-tier, third- and fourth-tier will have no change, zero growth in real estate investment. First- and second-tier core cities, together there are 10 cities, there are hundreds of third- and fourth-tier cities, they account for 80% of real estate investment. Third- and fourth-tier cities continue to decrease inventory, how do we re-stimulate the real estate when we cannot go back to the era of depending on steady growth in real estate. If you could stimulate third- and fourth-tier real estate ghost cities, you want to spend how much money? Not necessarily a good thing.
UKIP's reason for existence was to get the United Kingdom out of the EU. There are many issues that fall under the control of Brussels, such as economic regulations, but the big issue that voters wanted to hear about was immigration. UKIP realized immigration was the big issue and it focused on that issue, turning it into a shock electoral victory.The media and politicians have such intense ideological blinders that they cannot see this. When UKIP brought up the immigration issue it was like a red flag and they were attacked as bigots, a menace, etc. The truth is immigration was really an accidental issue, the party was pushing a referendum on EU membership, but found that one subset of the issue, control over national borders and immigration, was very popular. It rode the issue to victory in EU elections and did well in the national election.
In September 2012, Alexander Gauland, a former federal minister Bernd Lucke, an economist and Konrad Adam, a former editor of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung from 1979 to 2000 and chief correspondent of Die Welt until 2008, founded the political group Electoral Alternative 2013 (German: Wahlalternative 2013) in Bad Nauheim, to oppose German federal policies concerning the eurozone crisis. Their manifesto was endorsed by 68 economists, journalists, and business leaders, half of whom were professors and three-quarters of whom had academic degrees. The group stated that the eurozone had proven to be "unsuitable" as a currency area and that southern European states were "sinking into poverty under the competitive pressure of the euro".Purely economics, mainly anti-euro.
Even so, the Alternative for Germany party, which wants to curb immigration, gained for the second consecutive week, polling 10.5 percent.This is not surprising. Identity and culture are now the most important issues in politics, not economics. The new left-right axis runs international to national. Old allies now fall on either side of the spectrum: there are libertarians who qualify as far left lunatic open borders extremists as well as far right lunatic deport-them-all extremists. The question is one of identity: the international libertarians do not believe in borders, the nationalist libertarians do.
...Alternative for Germany, known as AfD, polled 3 percent in the INSA survey as recently as August...
Most members of religious denominations do not feel that illegal immigration is caused by limits on legal immigration, as many religious leaders do; instead, members feel it’s due to a lack of enforcement.This is what the public believes and most of the information they receive from the media are lies. Crime data on illegal immigration isn't collected by the government or is horribly distorted, and welfare use is suppressed.
Catholics: Just 11 percent said illegal immigration was caused by not letting in enough legal immigrants; 78 percent said it was caused by inadequate enforcement efforts.
Mainline Protestants: 18 percent said not enough legal immigration; 78 percent said inadequate
Born-Again Protestants: 9 percent said not enough legal immigration; 85 percent said inadequate enforcement.
Jews: 21 percent said not enough legal immigration; 60 percent said inadequate enforcement.
Unlike religious leaders who argue that more unskilled immigrant workers are needed, most members think there are plenty of Americans to do such work.
Catholics: 12 percent said legal immigration should be increased to fill such jobs; 69 percent said there are plenty of Americans available to do such jobs, employers just need to pay more.
Mainline Protestants: 10 percent said increase immigration; 73 percent said plenty of Americans available.
Born-Again Protestants: 7 percent said increase immigration; 75 percent said plenty of Americans available.
Jews: 16 percent said increase immigration; 61 percent said plenty of Americans available.
When asked to choose between enforcement that would cause illegal immigrants to go home over time or a conditional pathway to citizenship, most members of religious communities choose enforcement.
Catholics: 64 percent support enforcement to encourage illegals to go home; 23 percent support conditional legalization.
Mainline Protestants: 64 percent support enforcement; 24 percent support conditional legalization.
Born-Again Protestants: 76 percent support enforcement; 12 percent support conditional
Jews: 43 percent support enforcement; 40 percent support conditional legalization.
In contrast to many religious leaders, most members think immigration is too high.
Catholics: 69 percent said immigration is too high; 4 percent said too low; 14 percent just right.
Mainline Protestants: 72 percent said it is too high; 2 percent said too low; 11 percent just right.
Born-Again Protestants: 78 percent said it is too high; 3 percent said too low; 9 percent just right.
Jews: 50 percent said it is too high; 5 percent said is too low; 22 percent just right.
Piquero and Bersani's joint study, "Comparing Patterns and Predictors of Immigrant Offending Among a Sample of Adjudicated Youth," used as its base group "adolescents who were found guilty of a serious offense."Yes, the mainstream media widely blasted a story based on a study that found among the subgroup of youth criminals who commit serious crimes, illegal immigrant youths committed crimes at a lower rate. This was then reported as illegal immigrants commit less crime overall. This is what passes for information from the pro-immigration side. Goebbels would be proud.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that the first three quarters of GDP 48.7774 trillion yuan, while the sum of the 31 provinces in the first three quarters of GDP to 50.72562 trillion yuan, exceeding the national total of up to 1.94822 trillion yuan.iFeng: 统计局：前三季度GDP各省之和超全国总数1.9万亿
Reporters combed found , in the first quarter of this year exceeded the sum of provincial GDP of about 1.4 trillion yuan nationwide, the first half of the provinces beyond the country's total GDP of more than 2.7 trillion yuan.
China said it will invest more than 1 trillion yuan ($162 billion) redeveloping shantytowns this year as the government detailed how it will boost its urban population to support growth.If 1 trillion yuan wasn't enough in 2014, how much is needed in 2016 and where will the cash come from? Visions of 4 trillion dance in my head. The second article below mentions the banks providing loan support. It sounds like 2008 all over again.
"With 1.6 billion tonnes of consumption globally, steel remains the lynchpin of industrial growth," wrote Hamilton. "However, the growth part of this equation is an increasing problem, and not only in China."We only need Japan and Western Europe to completely shut down their steel industry in order to restore balance.
India, which has the potential to buoy demand for steel, is also contributing significantly to supply growth. Bloomberg Intelligence's Yi Zhu notes that 37 million metric tons of production capacity in India are currently under construction or in planning to be added.
"The only people who still seem to think there is significant upside in global steel consumption akin to the past decade are the major iron ore producers—for example BHP’s belief global steel consumption will hit 2.5 billion tonnes by 2030—just a further 50 percent upside required there!" Hamilton wrote in a separate note.
Total loans by the four lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., amounted to 35.7 trillion yuan ($5.6 trillion) at the end of October, down 65.6 billion yuan from a month earlier. That’s according to data released Sunday by the People’s Bank of China.How can they increase lending with falling deposits, increased NPLs and a slowing economy? Their balance sheets are impaired, much worse than is publicly admitted, and they know it.
Online peer-to-peer platforms sold a record 119.6 billion yuan ($18.8 billion) of financing products in October, according to researcher Yingcan Group. That’s equivalent to 23 percent of commercial bank lending in the month, up from 5 percent a year ago. While authorities said in July that Internet finance companies must provide sufficient disclosure and send risk reminders to customers, regulators have yet to issue specific laws.Credit creation is moving towards the riskiest, least regulated, least stringent areas of the market——and that's saying something in China considering the big banks will take a worthless credit guarantee and slap in on a loan to call it AAA. Furthermore, whereas the big four banks concentrate risk, P2P lending spreads it far and wide across millions of households. There will be no extending and pretending for them if loans sour.
"From the beginning of the second half of this year, this phenomenon is more obvious, we can see significant tightening of corporate liquidity."That quote is from a manager at a steel futures trading firm who notices the producers tapping their capital more often, drawing out cash from hedges immediately after settlement.
According to Reporters statistics, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, listed companies Bayi Iron & Steel  , asset-liability ratio was 100.63 percent, SGIS  ), Xining Special Steel  , asset-liability ratio as high as 93.37% respectively, 88.38%, and another 7 debt ratio of listed steel prices more than 80%.
The end of September, China Iron and Steel Association statistics steel enterprises data shows bank loans fell 2.02% year over year, while finance costs rose 2.69%.Mr. Li says:
"After the central bank's double cuts, long-term funding costs declined, but new lending is still difficult, this year our business lines of credit may be contracted by 30% or 40%."The shock-wave blast from the economic slowdown and tightening credit conditions is about to hit the mills. Although there's been talk of cutting production, Mr. Li says it's very little. Most firms are stretching their funds and cutting their costs, they will produce right into the end. (That might explain this headline: World's Second-Biggest Miner Unfazed by China Growth Pessimists) Huatai Securities estimates production has been cut by about 80 million tons so far out of more than 1 billion tons.
On the one hand, on the asset-liability ratio generally higher steel prices, it must rely on the continued operation of the production line in order to maintain cash flow, bank credit guarantee loans, or enterprise funds strand breaks, will enter bankruptcy reorganization proceedings; on the other hand, steel prices bear the local GDP pressure, taxation, employment, once the closure will form a larger impact on society, can only hold the burden of losses to continue production.Instead, the industry continues on into a darker and darker future:
"There is no good cash flow, there is no good sales demand, it is possible closures will come true, but the time will be longer, after all, local governments and banks are reluctant to see this scene. The result is that now this vicious cycle, steel getting lower and lower, but the cost has remained high, or a little bit of steel prices rise, costs rise even higher results, scissors are obvious. For example, from July this year into mid-September, the iron ore price rose from $45 dollars to $55, but from July to September, steel prices fell from 2300 yuan / ton down to 1800 yuan / ton, both sides were squeezed, it basically wiped out our profit. " Li told reporters.Lee sees a bankruptcy wave exploding around the time of Spring Festival in 2016, in the middle and west of the country where the slowdown in demand is more acute.
"Two years ago we committed to the internationalization of the company, established a number of offices in Singapore, Italy and other places, would like to expand the sales market, this year also increased the export efforts." Lee told reporters, brothers units Shagang, Zhongtian steel is also more emphasis on overseas markets.Global prices are 200 yuan / ton less than Chinese steel prices, but due to lack of demand, there are no buyers, so Chinese mills eat the loss and dump it, which is keeping Chinese prices somewhat elevated (important for mills since they sell more domestically):
Industry insiders, the recent domestic steel export prices and compared to already upside down 200 yuan / ton, the price for all orders of steel mills can basically losses. However, if you do not take orders from overseas, domestic overcapacity or worse, we will eventually continue down domestic steel prices, China's steel enterprises will be more difficult situation.