Renminbi Depreciation and Real Estate, A Shares

Analysts believe that in the medium to long term, the real exchange rate and real estate prices showed strong correlation. If the exchange rate appreciation is expected to attract capital inflows, if the central bank did not fully hedge foreign exchange capital, the base currency of the banking system will be increased, the real estate business will further ease credit constraints, thereby pushing up real estate prices.

If the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to strongly, capital outflows will lead domestic asset prices, sensitive funds rate will naturally fall. Such as the current dollar rally, renminbi devaluation, many domestic HNWIs tend to go overseas to buy a house to hedge risks.
A shares:
Analysts said that in the trend of RMB fluctuation, along with depreciation will be devaluation of A shares.

There are two related reasons: on the one hand, devaluation of the currency valuation leads to falling asset prices, resulting in financial, real estate and other related sectors to weaken, drag down the broader market; on the other hand, devaluation is expected, once formed, will lead to outflow of hot money, A shares liquidity will rapidly tighten.

There are some analyst reports that say RMB devaluation might hit aviation, internationally financed real estate companies to bring greater financial burden, in turn the falling valuation of stocks may even reduce local real estate sales prices.

Some analysts pointed out that from the 2012 experience, defensive sectors such as utilities, telecommunications and medical were not affected by macro uncertainty and currency fluctuations.
iFeng: 人民币持续贬值这类人将损失惨重 楼市波动大

No comments:

Post a Comment