1. 2017 is expected to difficult to reproduce the real estate market in 2016, the broad based market, but it will not be a universal declineiFeng: 2017二线城市房价冷热不均 四大城市被看好
2. This year the price differentiation between the cities will become more apparent
(1) is expected to first-tier cities may be a slight correction in housing prices, the whole year will still rise slightly
(2) expected second-tier cities will be hot and cold housing prices uneven
...Tianjin, Beijing, Hefei, Chongqing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are the most populous cities in China in the past five years, and the population competitive advantage is prominent. Can be seen, Tianjin has exceeded Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities, becoming the most nearly five years of population growth in the city. This is mainly due to Tianjin is still in the city expansion period, while benefiting from the Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei city group planning good. Hefei is due to strong investment in the tertiary industry in recent years, the transport facilities are also constantly improving, commercial and entertainment areas are gradually forming, and promote the number of resident residents of Hefei increased sharply.
The first category, Tianjin. Tianjin has a population of more than 15 million, and is the last five years, China's population into the largest cities, promising Tianjin is not only because of the strategic position of Beijing and Tianjin is significant, because Tianjin is currently far lower than most per capita housing construction area second-tier cities, the future is still With a larger room for growth.
The second category, Wuhan, Zhengzhou. Wuhan and Zhengzhou, the size of the population reached 10 million, also belong to the second echelon of population flows, a large number of people to bring large-scale housing needs...Moreover, the three cities in 2016, although housing prices rose significantly, but the rate of increase was significantly less than Hefei, Xiamen and other cities.
...The third category, Chengdu, Xi'an. The western node-type city development is expected to enter a new stage, prices are still relatively depressions. Chengdu, Xi'an and other western cities in the rising cycle of 2016 were not more than 10% price increase, the western level of economic development and the eastern developed areas are still gaps, relatively adequate land supply, so the residential market in recent years, relatively stable performance.
...The fourth category: Hangzhou, Jinan and Qingdao and other tourist cities, air quality is better, are more typical consumer-oriented cities, including Hangzhou, Yangtze River Delta city group back in employment there is also a strong competitive edge. Jinan and Qingdao are the first cities in Shandong Peninsula.
(3) third- and fourth-tier inventory reduction is still the main task
On the three or four lines of urban real estate market inventory pressure, and can not simply according to 70 cities, 100 city data to infer its inventory. This is because there are 293 prefecture-level cities in China, 361 county-level cities, there are 1381 counties, the current published data and can not truly cover the three or four lines of the city's inventory situation. In a word, the actual inventory of the three or four line cities may be much higher than the statistical data. Even in the urbanization of migrant workers and public services to get policy support. To the inventory is still long way to go.
But in the three or four lines within the city, "differentiation" will also exist. Focusing on the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta city group from the first city / regional center close to the small and medium cities, the two city groups a good economic foundation, the future is expected to further absorb the population to enter. Secondly, it is favorable to medium and small cities in Chengyu (near Chengdu) and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (near Wuhan), which is close to the first city. On the one hand, these cities have a certain economic base. The first city is a regional center. Conditions are better, there is a large number of agricultural population to be transferred, the other is located in the Midwest, there may be a certain degree of policy tilt.
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