Third and Fourth-Tier Urbanization a Vision, Not Reality

Urbanization follows Zipf's law, such that large cities do not grow slower than smaller cities.
iFeng: 姜超:三四线城市化或仅是一个美好的愿景
Can the population gather? From the experience of urbanization in the United States and Japan, the population continues to gather in large urban areas. The United States since the 1950s, 50,000 - 25 million people in the metropolitan area population is basically stable; and more than 1 million population of the metropolitan area population proportion from 26% to 56%. The proportion of the population in Japan's population concentrated increased from 43% in 1960 to 67% in 2010, and the population continued to gather in the three metropolitan areas. After 1973, the population shifted from "three poles" to "one pole" to Tokyo. The population of the city is subject to Zipf's law, that is, the population of the Nth-largest city in the country is the first urban population of 1 / N, which means that the scale effect completely compensates for the marginal cost increase, and the growth rate of the big cities is not much faster than that of small cities SLOW.

i09: A mysterious law that predicts the size of the world's biggest cities

iFeng: 樊纲:中国目前应主要发展大城市 而非小城镇
China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said Fan Gang 20, urbanization is the migration of people, we have to study the laws of human behavior, China in the current stage the main development should be large cities, and not small towns.

...Fan Gang said that in our current stage of development, should be the main development of large cities, but not a small town-based. The land gave a small town, big city man-made limit, the last is today's results. Big cities, small cities polarized, big city prices, prices soared, small cities (houses) can not sell, because people do not go to small cities.

...For some small cities in Western countries, the existence of a large number of facts, Fan Gang said that small cities and towns in Western countries are often small cities around the city, belonging to the metropolitan surrounding large urban agglomeration, urban small cities , with rail transport, an hour, a Half-hour to work within the region, belonging to the urban agglomeration, urban areas of the part; these small towns did not die, because the European countries, the process of industrialization is very slow, 100 years, 150 years of several generations of talent to complete the industrialization. The young man has not gone, the retired man is back. Retirement is the first person to go back with high income, the second is to go back with social security, the third is with a lifetime of modern city life experience back, he went to transform the old house, some modern things back That small town, that small town has developed, they retired without having to go to the city crowded bus, so the development of small towns.

Different from the Western countries, China and Japan, South Korea and other late countries in just a few decades time for rapid industrialization, in one or two generations of time is the main population concentration, and less population flow. At this stage the rate of urbanization and greater urbanization tends to be higher. This is not what we do wrong, but the development stage is different, the development of different characteristics. The experience of the development of small towns in Western countries shows that small towns are not without opportunities for development, but not in the early stages of urbanization .

Fan Gang said that in this context, we think about the fast industrialized countries, in the present circumstances, no one back to the case, probably a lot of small cities now work is to protect the environment, protect the environment, protect the culture, protect the good Old house, the future can develop, but need a process.

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