2017-06-11

To Infinity and Beyond: Chinese Home Prices Will Have Another 50pc Rally

ZH: China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices
SCMP: China's top property bubble prophet says prices set to soar
The prediction was made by Zhu Ning, the deputy director of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University in Beijing and the author of China’s Guaranteed Bubble: How implicit Government Support has Propelled China’s Economy while Creating Systemic Risk.

...“We’re living through a bubble,” Zhu said. “If we don’t engage in more meaningful reform, which we haven’t, we’re very likely to have a financial crisis or a burst of the bubble. It’s a matter of sooner or later.”

Property prices in major cities will surge again “by another 50 percent or so” after measures to rein them in are eased, said Zhu, without specifying a timescale. Because policy makers have previously imposed curbs only to ease them again, people see them as a bluff, he said.
Policymakers have trained the public to "buy the dip" and as soon as controls are lifted, it will be off to the races again. Based on prior history, the slowdown in the housing market should intensify by the second-half of 2017, and by first-half 2018 the curbs will start being lifted.

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