150 Cities Pass Real Estate Restrictions in 2017, Ren Zhiqiang Doesn't Know When Market Rebounds

How's it working out?

iFeng: 今年超百城发布150余次调控政策 效果如何?

On the plus side, inventories are down:
E-House Real Estate Institute released data show that as of the end of October 2017, the 80 monitored cities in new commercial housing inventories totaled 394.9 million square meters, a decrease of 2.1% year on year reduction of 10.1%, year on year decline has been 27 months in a row . Reporters noted that 80 cities in the four-tier cities account for more than half. Comparing historical data, inventory scale is equivalent to the level of August 2013, that inventory down to the size of four years ago.
But there are still sales troubles in fourth-tier cities:
However, the "four-tier cities housing stock situation is very different: there are industries rely on and near the hot spots of the city, there is a certain appeal to the population, the market demand; and there are many cities in the past due to the blind development, resulting in not a few real estate sales difficulties. "Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of Metro Holdings said.
The focus for 2018 is rental properties:
This year, much to accelerate the establishment of hire purchase both the housing system as a long-term mechanism to improve the force point. At present, China's rental population is expected to hit 190 million people, the size of the rental market exceeded one trillion yuan. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, the country issued a new policy of leasing the city has exceeded 50.

- Multiple ways to increase lease land. Recently, the Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and other cities have opened "rent not only sell" land sales model, most of the land by the state-owned enterprises went for a "zero premium rate." With the policy of the Institute of Statistics data show that as of the end of November 2017, the country's major cities listed oriented housing land lease for a total of 26.

- encourage leasing companies to large-scale, professional development. Hangzhou suggested that about 15 selected a certain size, brand housing rental housing rental business as a professional pilot. Chengdu, Shenyang put forward, and strive to 2020, the cultivation and development agencies, the scale of not less than 50 leasing companies; Hefei, Xiamen expressed support for the rental business bigger and stronger through mergers reorganization.

- financial factor to promote the development of the rental market is taking shape. Recently, the first single central rate rental housing REITs class products by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for approval. CITIC Bank (601998, stock it), China Construction Bank (601939, stock it), Bank of China (601988, stock it) and other banks recently are announced to give rental housing financial support, including consumer credit support for financial support enterprise end and the personal ends.

Insiders said the National Development and rental market unprecedented efforts, follow-up needed to accelerate the construction of rental housing legal system.
Ren Zhiqiang isn't making any prediction about 2018, saying the government-market cycle is broken:
For the past regulation period, is summarized Ren, "(it) prices, most non-virtuous circle relationship. That is when the market is at a low ebb, the government has taken some startup (stimulus) measures, then (the market) began to enter the madness stage, before you start regulation after regulation and finished into the doldrums, and then start again the regulation, which is macroeconomic policy in history, and most of the cycle is repeated. Therefore, prices must enter the madness inside a certain stage, then low tide, and then start this time no one knows will not start up again."

Ren told reporters in the 21st Century Business Herald interview also said that, due to uncertainties more, and this time, he is a bad judge the future market trend. Sun Hongbin, chairman of financial innovation in China also agreed to the first half, but for the future, Sun Hongbin more optimistic. Sun Hongbin said, "2018 will be better than 2017."
His prior recovery call in September 2015 (made in summer 2014) was close enough for horseshoes, hand grenades and macro.

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