Did China Revise Data or Did Growth Collapse? FAI, PFAI Contracts 2.3pc in December

I take the official growth rate for China as given (the cumulative YTD growth rate) and calculate the single month, yoy change for the charts I put out each month. I didn't notice a discrepancy the past few months, but this month I noticed a discrepancy in fixed asset investment.

I calculated a 2.3 percent drop in private fixed asset investment, but China says the cumulative YTD rate went up from 5.7 percent in November to 6.0 percent in December.

I rechecked the December 2016 release and did a database query: National Data. I see no revision to show my calculation is an error and my raw data is what NBS reports for fixed asset investment and private fixed asset investment covering all the relevant time periods.

When I calculate the cumulative YTD growth rate, using NBS figure, I'm accurate for years until October. The NBS says cumulative YTD private fixed asset investment growth in October, November and December was 5.8, 5.7 and 6.0 percent.
My calculation says cumulative YTD private fixed asset investment growth in those three months was 5.4, 5.2 and 4.5 percent.

I always assume I've made an error first, but I didn't change anything in my calculations. Was there a new seasonal adjustment that kicked off in October? I don't see any announcement. I also assume I didn't catch the NBS making a booboo (reporting the wrong headline number) because I would think someone would have caught it before me in the past three months. The real estate investment data matches up, I don't see any discrepancy there.

Here's private fixed asset investment, the green line in my cumulative YTD total against the official reported number in yellow.

I see a similar divergence in fixed asset investment, but it starts in August.

NBS reports cumulative YTD growth for August through December: 7.8, 7.5, 7.3, 7.2, 7.2 percent.
I calculate: 7.6, 7.4, 6.9, 6.8 and 5.9 percent.
As with PFAI my numbers line up going back years until August.

I also calculate a 2.3 percent decline in fixed asset investment for the month of December.

Here's the breakdown showing the drop. The December decline is consistent with end of 2015.

The breakdown of private fixed asset investment shows a contraction in services and manufacturing for the month of December. Last time it went negative was mid-2016.

Assuming my calculations are correct, we don't have to wait to see the impact of the credit slowdown. It is already here.

Reuters reports the official NBS number: China 2017 fixed asset investment grows 7.2 pct, slowest since 1999

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