Is Trump Bernie's Opening Act?

Face to Face: Trump as the Jimmy Carter of the GOP? And Bernie as the Reagan of the Dems?

The contradictions that came from re-marrying an old partner during a new stage of life -- trying to base something novel on something traditional -- led to a breakdown in the party's ability to get the government to work on a basic level. The Carter administration was wracked by multiple failures to fund the government, for the first three out of his four years -- despite the party controlling the White House and Congress. The Trump administration has been hit by its own funding failure during its first year, and the way things look going forward, there could be more in store for its second, despite Republican control of the White House and Congress.

These are the only two modern administrations to suffer from funding failures despite single-party control of the White House and Congress.

In the Carter funding failures, the contentious issue was federal funding for abortion (via Medicaid). The House wanted more stringent restrictions than the Senate did, and the House's stance reflected the change in the party owing to Carter running as a born-again evangelical Christian. In the Trump funding failure, the sticking point was immigration, with the House in favor of more restrictions than the Senate, and the House reflecting Trump's campaign as a hardliner on immigration.

Being pulled in two different directions, old and new, also meant there were no major changes to national policy under Carter. He did kick off the deregulatory mania that has reined since his term, but it was fairly limited in scope (targeting mostly transportation). But there were too many of the old school New Deal Democrats in his coalition to permit an unfettered pursuit of laissez-faire policies. That would have to wait until Reagan.

Given the schizophrenia of the current government, we can't expect to see major changes of a populist or nationalist sort either. Trump will probably score a noteworthy change here or there in the new populist zeitgeist, like Carter kicking off the deregulation craze, but nothing major. There are too many old school corporatist Republicans in Trump's coalition to permit a full-throttle populist transformation. That will have to wait until Bernie after him.

This view lines up with Mark Yusko's interpretation of market/political events using the 1928/29 framework.

CNBC: 'We're flowing toward the path' similar to time before Great Depression, analyst says

Although I'm not sure about the prediction, it wholly fits withing the context of falling social mood. New trends are underway. Trump broke the ice on nationalism, immigration and protectionism because he was able to penetrate the official narrative on these topics, but these were rising in popularity since the turn of the millennium. Add in declining support for democracy and Constitutional rights among Millennials and it's very possible this is formalized as national socialism under Sanders or another Democrat.

Political variance increases greatly as mood declines. Small things, like the charisma of the leading candidates, become far more important. Which party wins could come down to something as simple as musical chairs: who is in office when the crisis hits?