2018-02-14

Spread Between Sentiment and Reality Peaking

Yahoo Finance: Inflation heats up, stocks tumble

But, the 10y and 30y yields are below their recent highs in early trading.

ZH: USDJPY Plunges To Lowest Since Nov 2016 After Weakest Japanese GDP In 2 Years
ZH: Stagflation: Retail Sales Tumble Just As Inflation Spikes

It's not stagflation, it's the end of a growth rally fueled by Chinese flooding their economy with cheap money.

Now Chinese money, at least for real estate developers, is as tighter than at any time since 1997.

The lastest thrice-monthly inflation report from China's NBS looks disinflationary: 流通领域重要生产资料市场价格变动情况(2018年2月1日-10日)

Today the PBoC says leverage is still too high in the economy. iFeng: 央行:总杠杆水平仍然偏高 国企债务压力较大
February 14, the central bank released its fourth quarter monetary policy report. The central bank mentioned in the report the macroeconomic outlook for China. The report pointed out that from a domestic perspective, the current economy is stable to a certain extent, due to the global economic recovery in the context of the recovery of foreign demand to promote the non-governmental investment vitality is still relatively inadequate, some short areas have not yet broken the bottleneck, the overall level of leverage is still high, especially businesses It is still the debt pressure of state-owned enterprises is still large.

Jeffrey Snider helpfully puts this all in context.

The charts matter because markets are not tied entirely to fundamentals. Psychology matters and markets are reflexive. On this point, Trump's cheerleading on the economy is one of the most important pillars of his economic policy because people are literally depressed, hence the economic depression (from trend growth).

Right now, however, the fundamentals are turning away from inflationary towards disinflation and deflation.

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