The Fed is supposed to be rolling off ~$12 billion a month in Treasuries and ~$8 billion a month in MBS in March. In April, this increases to ~$18 billion and ~12 billion.
It bought treasuries in March, $641 million according to FRED. Total assets only fell $1.2 billion in March instead of ~$20 billion. It was down $26 billion in February and $29 billion in January, for a total of $56 billion in three months, which is on pace for the quarter. If the Fed frontloads its sales in April, we could see $40ish billion in assets sold as this quarter's total balance sheet reduction should be $90 billion.
The Q2 reductions are roughly 0.7 percent of the Fed's balance sheet each month. By December, at $50 billion monthly, the Fed will be reducing its balance sheet by 1.2 percent each month.
FRED: U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve: All Maturities
The Fed's total assets only declined $1.2 billion.
"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "The Lock-In Effect
of Rising Mortgage Rates"
A brief excerpt:
Here is new working paper from Feder...
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