PBoC Survey: 23pc of Chinese Plan to Buy a Home in Next 3 Months

iFeng: 23%居民有购房意愿，央行释放了什么楼市信号？

However, Anjiarong believes that not to mention 23% of residents plan to buy a house in the next three months, even if you say 80% I believe that it is only cruel reality, accounting for 14.2% in 2014 and 23% in 2018. The absolute number of willingness has increased a lot. In addition to short-term fluctuations in real estate, on the other hand, it also shows that in the recent past, everyone has panicked about the current market.

Clearly this is not 2016, and it's not even really 2014 yet. More like second-half or late 2013.

Each quarter, the central bank will conduct a survey on residents' response to housing prices. In the second quarter of 2018, the central bank conducted 20,000 surveys of urban depositors in 50 cities across the country. The results show that: for the next quarter, 36.5% of residents expect " "Up", 44.7% of residents expect "basically unchanged", 8.5% of residents are expected to "decline", and 10.3% of residents are "not visible". The top three investment methods preferred by residents are: “banking, securities, and insurance company wealth management products”, “fund trust products” and “stocks”. The proportion of residents choosing these three investment methods is 48.7% and 21.9% respectively. 18.4%.

Think China will allow mass defaults of these products or will destroy the yuan instead?

Consumer inflation expectations (goods prices)

Business sentiment is largely positive, but look at the left-hand column: macro environment. The next column is business confidence, soaring just like in the USA. There is no sign of trade concerns in the surv data.ey

If business is confident, bankers are super confident (in the macro economy, second column from the left) in the midst of a deleveraging effort. There's a huge gap with where they see current macro conditions though (left-most) and the third column shows they're not really keen on current monetary policy.