CCTV Guests Say Real Estate Growth Model is Over

China must shift away from reliance on real estate and grow other sectors of the economy.

iFeng: 央视评论丨下半年经济“去地产化”是大势所趋

On the evening of August 10th, CCTV Finance Review invited Guo Liyan, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research Market and Price, and Wang Guan, a commentator of Yangguang Finance, to be in the studio.

Why is the property market regulation so determined?

Guo Liyan: The property market is taking the initiative to make the whole body firm and stable.

Guo Liyan, a researcher at the China Institute of Macroeconomics Market and Price Research: In the first half of the year, the prices of new homes in first- and second-tier cities were basically stable, but the prices of individual third- and fourth-tier cities were relatively large. At present, the real estate-related leverage is relatively high. Many real estate development companies' debts may have reached an intensive repayment period in the next two or three years. The problems involving financial risks have to be prevented. Real estate and our current financial stability, stable expectations, and insurance People's livelihood is closely related. In addition, the current structural de-leverage has already achieved results. The next step may be to enter the stage of stable leverage. It does not rule out the support for some people's livelihood infrastructure. The marginal credit is relaxed, and some funds may flow into the property market from various channels. It is necessary and urgent to stabilize the price, which is the main contradiction of the current property market.

Wang Guan: Unprecedented regulation reflects the determination of the central economic transformation

Wang Guan Finance commentator Wang Guan: This year is just 20 years of housing reform in 1998. In the past 20 years, the real estate market has contributed significantly, but the negative effects are also becoming more and more obvious. It is reflected in two extrusions: one is the physical squeeze, the house price can Transmission to rent, even to the cost of the enterprise, has a very direct squeeze on corporate profit levels and reproduction inputs; another, consumption in the first half of the year contributed more than 78% to economic growth, but at the same time due to high housing prices, young People who want to save money to buy a house do not dare to spend money, individuals and families who buy a house to repay loans, but also a considerable proportion of disposable income for housing loans. Therefore, curbing housing prices has a very intuitive benefit for further release of consumption, including lowering corporate costs.

How to adjust the property market

Guo Liyan: Insufficient effective supply causes structural supply and demand imbalance

Guo Liyan, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomics Market and Price Institute: Some local real estate markets and commercial housing security houses have different types of markets. Public housing is at the edge of the city. Public medical care and education, including some commercial facilities, are not finished. Therefore the demand for commercial housing cannot be diverted, so it is impossible to stabilize housing prices, which causes structural contradictions in supply and demand, and gives housing prices a certain upward momentum.

Wang Guan: Effective regulation requires strong execution

Wang Guang Finance Reviewer Wang Guan: In the first half of this year, the national-level land sales revenue at the national level was about 2.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. In many places, excessive land income has been obtained compared with the past; at the same time, it is necessary to resolutely complete the regulation of the property market, which has a certain degree of self-game. In fact, we have also seen the so-called looting wars in various places since the second half of last year. This reflects the desire of emerging talents everywhere and the desire for emerging industries. If emerging industries can develop and new employment reservoirs are developed, new tax-based tax sources can be further developed, and they can more effectively avoid previous reliance on land finance. This, in turn, will also help to improve the enforcement of local property market regulation. Therefore, how to let the regulation fall on the one hand, and at the same time be able to race against time to revitalize the new local economy, including new emerging industries, may be a test of the times for the local.

Guo Liyan: Winning the price war to lay the foundation for the long-term mechanism of the healthy development of the property market

Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Institute of Market and Price Research, China Academy of Macroeconomics: I think the most important thing is to combine long and short, precise policy, and improve policy consistency and synergy. The current central government’s emphasis on firmly curbing housing price increases and establishing long-term mechanisms is to block The relationship between war and protracted war and the fight against housing prices are a good foundation for the long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the property market.

Wang Guan: price regulation is the means of long-term mechanism is the purpose of the economy to develop healthily "de-real estate" is the trend of the times

Wang Guan, a commentator on Yangguang Finance: From the perspective of global economic development and historical development, no country or region, any nation is relying on the development of real estate, gaining long-term economic prosperity and national strength. History has proved This is impossible. Next, China's economy will move towards a stage of high-quality development. At present, it is intensively regulated. In fact, it strives for time and space for the long-term mechanism.