CASS Calls the Housing Turn, Gold Sept Silver Oct Weak

iFeng: 社科院：中国一二线城市房地产“金九银十”或落空

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a report on the 27th, saying that in the short-term, the “Golden September and Silver 10” in the first and second tier cities fell, and the house prices were stable and falling. The price increase in the third and fourth tier cities continued to decline.

On the same day, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Financial and Economic Strategy Research Institute and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Urban and Competitive Research Center project team released the September 2018 "China Housing Market Development Monthly Analysis Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report), based on August big data prices The Index (BHPI) analyzes the current status and development trends of the Chinese housing market.

The report pointed out that since the beginning of 2018, house prices in Beijing have begun to rise, Shanghai continues to fall, Shenzhen has risen slightly, and Guangzhou has risen rapidly. In August, under the policy of strict control of housing prices in the central government, the rhythm of Beijing's housing price recovery was interrupted. In August, the price of first-tier cities rose by 0.27% from the previous month, only 0.01 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Guangzhou rose by 1.49%, Shenzhen rose by 0.85%, Beijing fell by 0.02%, and Shanghai fell by 1.24%. Compared with the previous year, house prices in first-tier cities in August rose by 4.1% year-on-year, of which Guangzhou rose by 18.19% year-on-year, Beijing rose by 0.09% year-on-year, and Shanghai fell by 8.37% year-on-year.

The report pointed out that although the housing prices in first-tier cities are stable, the first-tier cities are the most attractive urban groups. The residents have high incomes and large populations. The contradiction between potential supply and demand is difficult to ease in the short term.

The report shows that under the combined effect of the government's strict control of housing prices, the adjustment of the shed reform monetization policy, and the short-term market cycle close to the top, the housing prices in the first-tier and second-tier cities have significantly deteriorated. However, compared with the same period of last year, it still accumulated a high price increase. In August 2018, the price of first-tier cities rose by 16.09% year-on-year, and that of second-tier cities rose by 16.75%.

The report shows that house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities are still rising inertia, but the overall growth rate has declined. Since the 2018, the average of the third- and fourth-tier cities has increased by 10.45%. In August, the third- and fourth-tier cities rose by 0.45% from the previous month, and the growth rate dropped by 0.69 percentage points from July. The report pointed out that the vacant housing stocks in third- and fourth-tier cities are more serious, which has restrained the long-term development of the housing market.

In the later stage of the forecast, the report pointed out that the complicated and volatile international economic situation has led to an increase in market uncertainty, which will enhance the market wait-and-see mood in the short term. In addition, the central government will resolutely curb housing price increases and have a greater impact on housing price rise expectations. In the short-term, the “Golden September and Silver 10” of the first-line, first-tier and second-tier cities fell through, and the house prices were stable and falling. With the deepening of the control policies, the price growth rate of the third- and fourth-tier cities continued to decline.