2018-09-12

Stop Blaming Slowing Chinese Economy on Trade War, Or Get Shutdown

There have been some bearish posts in the past couple of months such as Cat Sister Sees More Yuan Depreciation. If China is cracking down on financial media, these articles will dry up.

I suspect the first source in the article is correct. The trade war is too political. Decisions about it go straight to the top. Mistakes are blamed on the leadership. Moreover, many around the world are incorrectly blaming Chinese economic weakness, yuan depreciation and falling A-shares on the trade war. They are ascribing political blame where it does not belong.

The truth will be revealed by the performance of Chinese assets and related articles. If the government is censoring heavily, there will be more "buy the dip" and "leaders are working hard" propaganda. If the censors are targeting political articles, there will still be plenty of "dollar shortage," "Federal Reserve did it," "pledged stock loans," "struggling SMEs," along with bearish forecasts.

SCMP: China financial news service shuts down, ‘sorry’ for unspecified mistakes
A source from another mainland internet portal, which receives instructions from Chinese censors, said the harsh punishment over NetEase’s financial and economic news coverage may be linked to an ongoing campaign by Beijing to stabilise confidence in China’s economic prospects amid an escalating trade war with the United States.

“Trade war is the likely reason,” said the source, who declined to be named. “We’ve received warnings about trade war coverage.”

China has previously told its journalists to play down negative impact of the US-China trade war and banned them from linking the trade war with financial market turmoil, from stock market declines to depreciation in the value of the yuan.

Government officials and state media outlets are sending a consistent message that China can successfully manage any fallout from the trade war. China’s top leadership has listed “stabilising expectations” as a key priority in its management of the economy.

In the latest meeting of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, the agency coordinating financial regulation chaired by Vice-Premier Liu He, China’s top financial officials pledged to ensure stability in stocks, bonds and foreign exchange markets, and to avoid any “black swan” disruptions.

NetEase had been pulling analysis and views from social media platforms in its financial news, with many articles detailing the possible harm China could suffer from the trade war.

...A third source, who is close to China’s cyberspace administration, said NetEase was punished because it organised a big economics conference but did not let the censors know beforehand.

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