2018 Midterms Simple Model Update

The only assumption going into the simple model is that the GOP should outperform the final generic ballot average by about 3 percent on Election Day. That could be wrong if there is a wave election, but the only time the GOP underperformed polling was when they led in the generic ballot.

In 2006, a wave election for Democrats, they underperformed the final generic ballot by 3.6 percent. They finished with a 7.9 percent lead in the final polling.

Today they are up 7.3 percent in the generic ballot.

The only historic scenario under which they take the House is a wave election similar to the GOP Tea Party wave of 2010.

The Democrats are within striking distance of taking the House even if the simple model is highly accurate. Luck swinging in their direction could give them the House. Conversely, if the GOP polling improves in the next two weeks, the outlook for the Dems will dim. The betting market odds are priced for no polling changes in the GOP's favor and the Democrats matching their polling lead today on Election Day.