Short and Long Term Cycle Convergence Signals Major Top for Chinese Real Estate

iFeng: 楼市大拐点已至：三大红利消失，三大背离出现

The three deviations of the industry, from the supply and demand side to the capital end to the business end, from the outside to the inside, from the macro to the micro layer, appearing layer by layer, reflecting the near-inflection point of the small cycle of supply and demand. But this time the cycle inflection point is different from what we said before in China's real estate three-year cycle. This cycle turning point not only reflects the small cycle inflection point of short-term supply and demand changes, but also superimposes the big turning point of the industry life cycle. -- Because from a fundamental perspective, the three major dividends that support the rapid growth of the real estate industry are disappearing.

...In summary, the demographic dividend from the long-term, financial dividends from the medium-term, policy dividends from the short-term, the three fundamental factors continue to converge, and finally overlapped when the three major deviations emerged, forming a synergy, leading the real estate industry began to step into the next A life cycle stage - maturity.

The authors don't see a winter for the market though, only a change into a mature period:

After the real estate industry enters the maturity period, some "barbaric" problems facing the rapid growth period will gradually disappear, but it will not be like "winter is coming" as some pessimists think. “Live” is more about the test of the capital chain, and it is a correction of the barbaric expansion model in previous years. The arrival of this real estate turning point is not a turning point in the industry's life and death, but the industry has entered the autumn from the summer, and the winter will not come.