2019-03-26

Central Bankers Follow the Market in Setting Interest Rates


From 2014: PBOC Reasons for Cutting Interest Rates Versus Reality of Deflation
In De-mystifying RBA Setting of Interest Rates, Steve Keen showed how the RBA followed the market's adjustment of interest rates.
The graph shows an almost 100% cor­re­la­tion between the cash rate and the 90-day bank bill rates. How­ever the data also shows that in almost every instance the RBA cash rate FOLLOWS the 90-day bank bill rate, rather than leads it. The data also shows that the RBA will gen­er­ally increase rates once the 90-day bank bill rate gets 50 basis points or more above the RBA cash rate. The actions on the down­side are not as tight, with decreases in cash rates occur­ring when the bank bill rate is any­where from 0 to 100 basis points below the 90-day bank bill rate. How­ever as a rule of thumb the RBA tends to decrease the cash rate when the 90-day bank bill rate is 50+ basis points lower than the cash rate.
The graph is currently down at the site. Here's EWI showing a similar pattern at the Federal Reserve: Here's How to Know When the Fed Might Raise Interest Rates. Here is an article from the Federal Reserve San Francisco Branch: Given the relatively small size of the federal funds market, why are all short-term rates tied to the federal funds rate? The article doesn't make the argument that central banks chase rates, but the chart on the page does:
Notice the Fed is following the market at turning points.

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