High-Yield Spreads Basing Before Next Move Up

March to May has often been a local low for high-yield spreads. This was true in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2015. This is the only "recession" worth watching because it will send a very clean signal. The red line is a signal for getting out of the market. You'd have missed the meat of the 2008, 2011 and late 2015/2016 sell-offs using that as a signal.