Russiagate Was Bootloader for China Trade War

Back in February 2018 I wrote: Russia Collusion Narrative Dead, Long Live Chinese Collusion!

The Russians sowed discord mainly by being present, allowing the creation of a false Trump-Russia collusion narrative. Basically, they got America to shoot itself in the face. The return on investment is incredible, particularly if FBI and DOJ officials eventually get indicted for turning government agencies against a political opponent and sitting president.

Now with Russia collusion out of the way, make way for Chinese collusion and trade war. Instead of an intrapolitical battle, Chinese collusion will be a bipartisan effort.

In a worst case Russiagate scenario, high-level government officials engaged in the greatest scandal in American history and potentially crossed the line into sedition/treason once President Trump was in office. In a best case, the spying on domestic political opponents was legal and won't result in a tit-for-tat escalation in using domestic spy agencies against political opponents. One thing we know for sure, however, is the Russiagate included extreme anti-Russian propaganda and was very jingoistic. The left was whipped up into a patriotic xenophobic fever, including all the major media outlets. When China came on the scene as the issue, the left was primed. With much of the right in agreement, anti-China narratives have almost no opposition.

Here's "The World is Flat" globalist cheerleader Thomas Friedman agreeing with Steve Bannon:
Globalists and nationalists also agree on anti-China. Globalists and American imperialists are anti-China because it is a competitor to the United States' position as global hegemon. Russia is not a competitor without China. China can be a competitor without Russia in the future. If it comes to it, they'll start WWIII in the Pacific to maintain U.S. hegemony.

Have you noticed anti-China stories getting more attention lately? Here's the latest: China is killing the ozone layer.

ZH: Scientists Expose World-Killer: Where Ozone-Destroying Chemicals Are Coming From

After much speculation, the whereabouts and magnitude of these harmful emissions has been confirmed in scientific research. As earlier reporting in The New York Times had already suggested, they seem to be coming from the northeast coast of mainland China.

...Between the periods of 2008-2012 and 2014-2017, in fact, CFC-11 emissions increased here by roughly 110 percent.

...These violations are likely going unreported because even though CFC-11 is illegal, it is also one of the cheapest ways to produce new foam insulation in refrigerators and buildings.

The Anti-China narrative is out of the box and has a life of its own now.

As for the Logic of Strategy: Toshiba Joins Huawei Blockade, Suspends Hard-Drive Shipments

Toshiba is at least the third major Japanese supplier to cut ties with Huawei, the other two being smartphone chip-maker ARM and Panasonic, which also supplies parts for Huawei phones. Japan's enthusiastic support of the White House's crackdown on Huawei shows that the world's third-largest economy has picked a side in the battle between China and the US, potentially risking the trade war (and possibly even a hot war) across the East China Sea (and perhaps more riots).

No surprise Vietnam is on board too.

February, Nikkei Asian Review: Huawei remains 'confident' of winning Vietnam 5G deals
April NAR: Vietnam's top telecom to adopt 'self-developed' 5G tech

The key word in the "Logic of Strategy" is logic. Once an actor tips the first domino, other players will follow because there is a logical progression through the decision tree. The world was waiting for someone to make a move. President Trump moved the U.S. in a new direction and suddenly other nations are following. Read my post based on the book if you haven't, the extensive review linked in that post, or the book itself. The U.S. is yelling at its very close UK ally about Huawei, but Japan and Vietnam need no prodding because the logic speaks for itself.

Finally, the narrative of trade war grows on both sides. ZH: iPhones Are Now "Embarrassing" In China As Trade War Deepens.

In March of last year I posted, Prepare for Smashed Up KFCs and McDonald's

If I was running a visible American brand in China, I'd be thinking about lowering my profile right now. China could unleash nationalist riots in response to a trade spat. I don't know that they would do that, but a serious trade dispute with the U.S. would be more significant than Japanese history textbooks. I suspect it would be more negative than the South China Sea ruling by the Hague in 2016 (see below).

I'm not sure what Apple could do given the prominence of its brand. This trade war could be far from over and any prominently "American" brand is at risk.