Deleveraging Deflates Real Estate Financing

A bump in SOE and local government financing will be needed to offset the slowdown in real estate financing this month, or China will not hit credit growth targets.

iFeng: 房企融资遭遇“黑五月” 40家房企融资骤降52.07%

After changing the previous loose expectations, the housing financing environment has tightened again in the near future. In May, the housing financing quota fell by more than 50%, and the housing enterprises encountered financing “black May”.

The official also issued a policy to tighten housing financing. Some experts predict that the tightening of housing financing in the future is a general trend. For some high-turning housing enterprises, the capital situation will be more severe, and the possibility of capital chain breakage should be prevented.

Corporate finance plummeted by 50% in May

After a slight decline in April, the amount of financing continued to fall sharply in May. According to the data provided by the same policy research institute, in May 2019, the total financing of 40 typical listed real estate enterprises totaled 36.799 billion yuan. Compared with April, the total financing decreased by 52.07%, setting a new low since 2019.

The good days that the housing companies are expecting have not yet had time to start, they have been annihilated by the small flames they are expecting. Zhu Lili, a researcher at the same policy institute, believes that with the introduction of the regulatory policies of the regulatory authorities in May, the policy tightening trend is obvious, which in turn affects the difficulty of overseas financing of housing enterprises.

Corporate bonds and other debt financing have always been the two most important channels for housing financing. In May, these two “life-saving pills” failed at the same time. Specifically, in terms of trust loans, a total of 4 trust loan financings were monitored in May, with a total financing of 10 billion yuan, up 32.76% from the 7.537 billion yuan in April. The largest one was China Merchants Shekou to China Resources. Shen Guotou Trust Co., Ltd. applied for a renewable trust loan of 7 billion yuan; in terms of corporate bonds, only 6 corporate bonds occurred in May, a total of 9.585 billion yuan, a significant drop of 79.74% from April's 47.313 billion yuan. Two of the six corporate bonds were issued US dollar bonds, totaling 450 million US dollars, equivalent to RMB 3.105 billion; in terms of domestic bank loans, the financing amount in May was 7.769 billion yuan, a sharp increase from the 3.221 billion yuan in April. %; In other debt financing, the total financing amount in May was 5.313 billion yuan, a sharp drop of 50.54% compared with April 10.743 billion yuan; in terms of equity financing, the financing amount in May was 4.132 billion yuan, accounting for 11.23% of the total financing amount, which was down from the previous month. 36.96%; In addition, no mid-term notes, overseas syndicated loans, and entrusted loans occurred in May.

In contrast, the financing cost in May was lower, and the basic control was within 6.5%. Among the disclosed data, the lowest financing cost is Guangzhou City Construction Development Co., Ltd. 2019 public housing lease special corporate bonds (the first phase), the issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan, the coupon rate of 3.83%; followed by its issuance Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. publicly issued corporate bonds (first phase) for qualified investors in 2019, with a scale of 1.95 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 3.85%. The highest financing cost is that Xincheng Global, an overseas subsidiary of Metro Holdings, has completed the issuance of unsecured fixed-rate bonds with a total amount of US$300 million overseas, with a coupon rate of 6.5%.

For the performance of housing financing in May, Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of Tongce Group, believes that the source of the suspension of bond issuance comes from the “abnormality” of recent housing and land markets. In March and April, the land market was too hot. If there is no supervision, there is risk in the market. It is expected that the housing financing will be slightly tightened later.

Duan Yutong, an analyst at Zhuge Fangfang Data Research Center, told the China Times reporter that the intensive financing of the past period has led to a marked acceleration in the acquisition of land. The resulting land price rises and the upward trend of house prices reappears, and the tightening of financing supervision is obvious. At present, the overall real estate policy regulation direction is still based on "stable". In order to stabilize market expectations and achieve the goal of "stable price, stable price, stable expectations" and avoid excessive market temperature, the overall financing trend is declining.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that from the perspective of the property market regulation policy, the overall real estate policy regulation direction is still “small spring”, but “in summer” will inevitably be suppressed, and the policy will insist on “patching and playing the hamster." Financing supervision has begun to appear, and it is expected that financing will continue to tighten and decrease in June compared to May.

iFeng: 五月楼市数据透视： 销售继续筑底，房企过“紧日子”

The indicators may continue to fall back

The decline in sales has also affected the financial situation of housing companies. In the first five months of this year, the real estate development enterprises had a capital of 66.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from January to April. Among them, the growth rate of deposits and pre-sales and personal mortgage loans decreased compared with the previous April.

In the financing market, housing companies have also encountered certain difficulties, which has made the company's capital chain worse.

According to the data of the same policy research institute, in May, the financing amount of 40 typical listed real estate enterprises was 36.799 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.07% from the previous month, a record low of nearly one year. Among them, corporate bonds totaled 9.585 billion yuan, a significant drop of 79.74% from the previous year's 47.313 billion yuan. Foreign currency financing also plummeted 93.82%.

A housing company in Beijing told the 21st Century Business Herald that the tightening of financing policies is a continuation of the property market regulation policy triggered by Xiaoyangchun in March. He said that since April, the funds of both real estate and homebuyers have been tightened, and the National Banking and Insurance Bureau has issued penalties for illegal lending to real estate. At the end of May, the regulatory authorities also revealed that some housing companies will be tightened to open market financing, including bonds and ABS products.

The person said that due to the bad environment, various housing companies have generally passed the "tight days." For example, at the beginning of the year, the headquarters gave local companies the authorization to get a relatively rich budget, but it is still strictly controlled for high-priced land, and will give up decisively once the authorized price is exceeded.

Since mid-May, many housing companies including China Merchants Shekou, Jianye, Jinmao, etc. have released project transfer information due to excessive prices or insufficient project profitability.

For the future market trend, most of the respondents believe that “regulation will be due to urban policies and the market will fall back smoothly” will be the main trend.

The aforementioned housing enterprises said that some areas have been loosened and regulated in the near future. However, in general, whether the Suzhou regulation and control plan or the long-term mechanism such as market warning has begun to operate, both the central and local governments have left behind. Once the market changes again, the regulatory policy will move by the camera, thus stabilizing the market.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that under the background of housing and non-speculation, it is expected that the national regulation and control policy will not be relaxed in the short term, and the growth rate of commercial housing transaction area will continue to remain flat or decline in the next few months. Affected by this, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises is still relatively large, and the enthusiasm for starting the land is difficult to rebound rapidly. Therefore, the growth rate of real estate development investment in the country will continue to fall.

Zhongtai Securities believes that the key first- and second-tier property markets will continue to remain stable in the future, while the third- and fourth-tier property markets will tend to fall, resulting in a decline in national sales data. Under the current tightening of the financing environment, the heat of the land market is expected to decline, and the growth rate of real estate investment will also decline.

iFeng: 楼市拐点来了？这三大“风向标”城市5月集体降温

"Red May" is not red?

In May, the overall turnover of the national property market was not strong enough, and there was no rebound in March and April. It is roughly due to the following two reasons:

1, the intensity of regulation is not reduced

According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in May, the local authorities, including the ministries and commissions, have adjusted 41 measures for real estate. Although less than 60 times in April, real estate control policies for two consecutive months are in a period of policy-intensive release. The precise regulation of various places has effectively stabilized the property market.

2, inventory pressure is not small

At present, among the 100 large and medium-sized cities in China, the property market inventories have increased year-on-year, especially in the third- and fourth-tier cities.

Among them, the supply of new discs in first-tier cities increased, and the inventory rebounded significantly. Inventories in third- and fourth-tier cities have been in the process of climbing. According to statistics, since November 2018, the inventory of third- and fourth-tier cities has shown a continuous ring and positive growth year-on-year. The situation of oversupply has increased the pressure on third- and fourth-tier cities to destock.

It is undeniable that although “Red May” has failed, the market expectation has also changed, and the property market has also developed in a more stable direction, and house prices have become more rational.

With the fact that “households are not speculated”, the characteristics of “different city policy” are clear. I believe that in the future, more refined property market regulation policies will become mainstream, and house prices will be based on market changes and regulatory targets in a reasonable range. Internal fluctuations.